This year is the biggest event in any football fan's calendar: the World Cup. The tournament is being held in Qatar and so, for the first time, the World Cup will take place during winter instead of the summer and understandably this will impact how fans enjoy the competition. The UK is also in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis and so many consumers will be looking for budget-friendly ways to watch the games with friends and family.
The World Cup will be held between 20th November and the 18th December 2022 in Qatar. There will be 64 matches in total and 32 countries competing to take home the trophy. The teams who have qualified will face five stages: the Group Stage, the Round of 16, the Quarter-finals, the Semi-finals and the Final. As the tournament is being held in Qatar, all games will take place between 10am and 7pm UK time.
Out of the four nations in the United Kingdom, both England and Wales have qualified for the tournament, the first time Wales has done so since 1958. Both teams are in Group B, alongside Iran and the USA, and so will have to face each other in order to progress through to the next stage of the tournament.
VoucherCodes has partnered with expert intelligence provider, GlobalData, to forecast the economic impact of the World Cup 2022 on the UK economy. With a key focus on the retail and hospitality sectors the report will predict how much UK consumers will spend during the tournament and where this money will be spent. It will consider the context of the World Cup tournament, including the cost-of-living crisis, the time of year of the tournament is being held, and the controversy around Qatar's selection as the host nation.
Where will fans be watching?
The World Cup is the biggest football competition in the world, and as a result, 30.6m Brits are expected to tune in to watch the 2022 World Cup in homes, offices, and hospitality venues across the country. Despite controversy over the host nation, the awkward timings of the matches, and economic uncertainty in the UK, millions of football fans will still gather round their TVs to watch England and Wales play.
This year 26.5m people will choose to watch the competition away from pubs and bars, either at home, at friends houses, or at work. As a result of rising costs and economic uncertainty in the UK, many consumers will be looking for a more budget-friendly way to watch the matches and so will favour cheering the teams on at home over hospitality venues.
In addition, for the first time, the competition is taking place in the winter so instead of flocking to pub gardens to enjoy the games in the sunshine, many fans will be deterred from heading out to the pubs by the cold and dark weather.
As the competition is being held in Qatar, many of the matches take place at 10am and 1pm meaning that many consumers will be at work. As a result, many people will be unable to head to hospitality venues to enjoy the games and instead will watch whilst working from home or in their offices. Lastly, all the matches will be held on free-to-air channels, such as BBC and ITV, so fans can easily access all the matches at home without needing to pay for any additional TV subscriptions.
However, despite this, 6.7m people are expected to watch at least one match at a pub, bar or restaurant during the World Cup. This figure will rise significantly if either England or Wales perform exceptionally well during the tournament and qualify for the later stages of the competition. The time of the games will also determine how many consumers choose to watch at hospitality venues. For example, Wales vs. Iran with a kick off time of 10am is unlikely to generate many hospitality customers, but England vs. USA with a kick off time of 7pm will be much more popular.
Figure 1: Forecast number of spectators by location
As the tournament progresses, the number of viewers will change. Throughout this report all figures are based on the assumption that England will reach the Quarter-finals and so participation will peak at this stage with 27.7m people expected to tune in, both at home and in pubs, bars, and restaurants. The second most popular stage will be the group stage, with 20.7m people watching. There are many games that take place during this part of the tournament so it's understandable that viewer numbers will be high. As England are not expected to make it to the Semi-finals, this stage of the tournament will see the lowest viewer numbers at just 11m.
Figure 2: Forecast number of spectators by stage of the tournament
Who will be watching?
The World Cup will be more popular in some parts of the UK than others. Unsurprisingly, England will have the most fans watching at 26.5m, as the England team are expected to go the furthest in the competition and this nation also has the largest population out of the four. This is followed by Scotland with 2m participants, Northern Ireland with 1.3m participants and lastly Wales with just 0.8m participants. Despite having their national team representing them at the World Cup, viewer numbers are low in Wales due to the smaller population size.
Figure 3: Forecast number of participants by nation
When it comes to age, the tournament will be most popular amongst 25-34 year olds, with 5m of them predicted to watch the World Cup at some point. This is followed by those aged 35-44 and those aged 45-54, both with 4.5m viewers. The tournament will be less popular amongst older generations with only 2.4m people over 75 expected to watch, and 3.5 million people aged 65-74 planning on tuning in.
Figure 4: Forecast number of participants by age
Whilst football is a stereotypically male-dominated sport, the World Cup will also be popular amongst women, with over two-fifths of all supporters forecast to be female (42.2%). However, the majority of fans will be male, with 17.7m men expected to watch at least one game, compared to 12.9m women.
How will the 2022 World Cup impact the economy?
Our report predicts that the 2022 World Cup will bring a boost of £2bn to the UK economy, from food and drink sales, to souvenirs, sportswear and more. For retailers and hospitality venues who are struggling during the cost-of-living crisis, this will undoubtedly be welcome news.
Retail spending
Most of the economic boost will come from retail spending with an estimated £1.6bn forecast to be spent over the course of the tournament. With many viewers opting to watch the tournament at home instead of heading out to pubs and bars, an estimated £1bn will be spent on food and drink as fans stock up for viewing parties. However, unlike during a summer World Cup where consumers can host BBQ and garden parties, with a winter World Cup options will be more limited due to the cold weather and therefore limited space.
As well as food and drink, TV electricals are also forecast to see a spike in sales amounting to £318.8m. Spend on TV electricals will be especially pronounced during the group stages when £227.3m is forecast to be spent. This stage of the tournament coincides with the Black Friday period, with both England and Wales set to play on Black Friday itself. A positive result on the day could encourage fans to take advantage of the deals on offer to purchase new TVs and electricals for the remainder of the tournament.
Sportswear and souvenir sales will also rise over the course of the tournament, however to a much smaller degree, with spending expected to total £197.1m and £61.3m respectively. Spend on souvenirs is predicted to be lower for this World Cup compared to other World Cup tournaments due to the negative sentiment towards the host nation, Qatar. Whilst fans will continue to support their teams, they are less likely to get behind the World Cup as a competition. Furthermore, the cold weather will also deter some fans from investing in sportswear and souvenirs such as football shirts as these are less appealing when the weather is cold and they can't be shown off.
Figure 5: 2022 World Cup retail sales by category
England is forecast to spend the most during the World Cup tournament with a total spend of £1.41bn. However, despite having the lowest viewer numbers, as the only other nation to compete Wales will spend the second most during the tournament with a total spend of £92.9m. Scotland will spend an estimated £70.5m, and Northern Ireland will spend £28m.
Retail spend by tournament stage
This report assumes that England will progress until the Quarter-finals and Wales will not make it past the group stages, as a result, the group stages are set to see the highest retail spend at £1.01bn. During this stage, fans will be purchasing food and drink for watch parties, souvenirs and decorations, and also any big purchases, such as TVs and electricals, that they may want for the duration of the World Cup tournament.
As the tournament goes on, spending will decrease. The round of 16 involves numerous games and so this stage will also have a high retail spend of £273.3m, followed by the Quarter-finals at £182.5m. As neither of the home nations participating in the tournament are expected to make it through to the Semi-finals, this stage will see a much lower spend (£85.3m), as will the Finals (£48m). Again, these figures will rise dramatically if England or Wales make it through to the final stages of the tournament.
Figure 6: Forecast retail spend by tournament stage
The number of shoppers follows a similar pattern. Shopper numbers will peak during the group stage when 14.1m shoppers are expected. This is followed by the round of 16 (9m), the Quarter-finals (7.4m), the Finals (7.1m) and lastly, the Semi-finals (4.8m). With England expected to be kicked out in the Quarter-finals it's understandable that shopper numbers and enthusiasm for the competition will drop after this stage, before picking back up slightly for the big Final.
Figure 7: Forecast shopper numbers by tournament stage
Hospitality spending
Football has always been associated with pubs and so it's hardly surprising that almost 22.4m football fans will be watching the World Cup in their local pub and other hospitality venues. This added custom will generate a £441.8m boost to the UK hospitality sector, with the largest percentage of this spend going on drink.
Over the course of the tournament, UK consumers are expected to spend £129m on food and a whopping £313m on drink - this equates to 70.8m pints of beer.
As mentioned, the time of the games will have a significant impact on the number of people choosing to watch at hospitality venues and on hospitality spend. Of the fixtures already scheduled, England's games against the USA and Wales will attract the largest number of people during the group stages with a kick-off at 7pm. Whilst attendance and therefore spend for the England vs. Iran game will be much lower, as it takes place on a Monday afternoon, there will be considerably more customers during the match than there would normally be for this time and day.
With the World Cup being held during winter, there will be a smaller boost to hospitality sales compared to if the tournament was held during the summer. Pubs and bars have a much smaller capacity during the winter as they can't make as much use of outside spaces such as beer gardens. With the tournament being held so close to Christmas, venues will also have to juggle bookings for Christmas meals and parties with the World Cup games. Furthermore, consumers will generally have less appetite to go to pubs during this World Cup as the cold and dark weather will make venturing out less appealing.
Hospitality spend by tournament stage
The number of fans watching from pubs and bars will vary as the tournament goes on, with numbers expected to peak during the Quarter-finals as this is the furthest stage England are expected to get to. During this stage 6.4m consumers are forecast to descend on hospitality venues spending £98m - equal to 16.3m pints of beer. On the other hand, only 2.3m people are expected to head to hospitality venues to watch the final, as England are unlikely to make it this far.
The stage of the tournament with the highest predicted spend is the Group stage, this portion of the competition has the most games and, as a result, spend will total £205.2m. In contrast, the Final will see much smaller spending figures (£15.9m), with England and Wales unlikely to make the cut, excitement and therefore spending will be much lower.
Figure 8: Forecast hospitality spend and number of visitors to hospitality venues, by tournament stage
The World Cup 2022 vs. 2018 and the UEFA Euros 2021
This year is the first time in history that the World Cup will be held during the winter. This is forecast to have a dramatic impact on both retail and hospitality sales as the cold weather and the proximity to Christmas, will impact how consumers will watch the games and spend.
Compared to the World Cup in 2018 and the UEFA Euros in 2021 spending will be down significantly with a decline of 17.1% and 42.3% respectively. This is in part due to the World Cup being held in the winter but also because unlike in 2018 and 2021 when consumers were happy to spend more frivolously, this year the World Cup is taking place during a cost-of-living crisis and so spending will be down.
In addition, during the 2018 World Cup the England team managed to reach the Semi-finals and in 2021 they were able to reach the Final of the competition, so understandably this had a positive impact on spend. This year, England are expected to be less successful in the competition, failing to qualify for the Semi-finals, and so fans will be less enthusiastic about spending.
Figure 9: Forecast retail and hospitality sales versus the 2018 World Cup and the UEFA Euro 2021. 2018 and 2021 actuals, 2022 forecast
The impact on retail
Looking at the impact of the winter World Cup on retail spending, sales are forecast to be down 19% on the 2018 World Cup (-£0.37bn), and 41% down on the Euros 2021 (-£1.1bn).
Every single retail category will see a decline in spend compared to the 2018 World Cup, with sportswear (-48%) and souvenirs (-49%) being hit the hardest. This year the World Cup is taking place during a tough economic period and as a result consumers are likely to cut back on unnecessary purchases such as new sportswear and souvenirs in particular, but also in other areas too.
When looking at spend compared to the UEFA Euro 2021, the biggest decline is in food and drink sales (-56%), and souvenir sales (-54%). Again, the financial climate surrounding the World Cup will have a negative impact on spend. In 2021, consumers had just emerged from months of consecutive lockdowns and so were happy to splurge and enjoy the tournament. However, in 2022 consumers will be cutting back where possible. The World Cup is also being held in Qatar and this has caused some negative sentiment towards the tournament as a whole so as a result, consumers are less likely to purchase souvenirs to celebrate this year's World Cup.
Whilst both food and drink and souvenirs will be down compared to the Euros 2021, sales of TV electricals and sportswear will increase by 55% and 338% respectively. As the World Cup is a bigger, global tournament consumers may be more likely to invest in expensive purchases such as new TVs for the games. The fact the tournament is held over the Black Friday period may also aid sales of TV electricals and sportswear as consumers will be able to pick up these bigger ticket items for a discounted price.
The impact on hospitality
The hospitality industry is also expected to see a significant decline in spend this World Cup compared to the previous World Cup and the Euros 2021. Spend will be down by 10% compared to the World Cup 2018 (-£44m), and down 52% compared to the Euros 2021 (-£420m).
With the World Cup being held in winter, consumers are less likely to venture out to pubs and bars to watch the game. Plus, with the competition being held around the Christmas period, hospitality venues will have less space to host fans as beer gardens will likely be closed and they'll have to juggle both World Cup and Christmas bookings.
The England games
England vs. Iran
On Monday 21st November at 1pm England will face Iran in their first group match of the tournament. As England kick off, 16 million people are expected to watch from home and hospitality venues.
Retail
With the game taking place in the middle of a weekday, watching at home will be by far the most popular place to enjoy the game, with 13.1 million fans tuning in as they work from home. As a result, retail will see a boost in sales as fans stock up with £102.3m to be spent on food and drink, £19.5m to be spent on sportswear, £5.6m to forecast to be spent on souvenirs, and £36.4m on TV electricals.
Hospitality
The hospitality sector will also see a rise in sales of £26.7m as 2.9m fans take a break from work to watch in their local pub or bar. As fans enjoy the match they're expected to spend £7.8m on food and £18.9m on drink, equal to 1.7m pints.
England vs. USA
The England vs. USA match takes place on Friday 25th of November at 7pm, a much more sociable time to watch. As a result, this game will be more popular than the last with 17.6m people planning on tuning in.
Retail
Again, with the cost of living crisis hitting wallets hard, many will choose to watch from home (13.3m) and so will spend in retail stores in preparation for the match. Overall, £245.6m is expected to be spent for the game, with money going towards food and drink (£153.5), sportswear (£29.2), souvenirs (£8.3), and TV electricals (£54.6).
Hospitality
As the England vs. USA match is on a Friday, 4.3m people will choose to watch from their local hospitality venue, a rise of 1.4m more than the last game. Consequently spending will also be higher with £46.2m to be spent, £13.9m on food and a further £33.4m on drink.
England vs. Wales
As both England and Wales are home nations, this match will also be popular with 17.3m football fans planning on watching on Tuesday 29th November at 7pm.
Retail
For this match, 12.9m people will watch from home spending a predicted £225.1m in retail stores. This includes spending on food and drink (£140.7), sportswear (£26.8), souvenirs (£7.6m), and TV Electricals (£50m).
Hospitality
As the game takes place outside of working hours, it will be a popular match to watch in a pub, bar or other venue. A forecast 4.1m people will watch in one of these locations, splashing out £43.1m on food and drink. Food spend is set to total £12.6m and drink spend will total £30.5m equal to 12m pints of beer.
England vs. Senegal
The England vs. Senegal game is England’s first knock-out game of the tournament and takes place on Sunday 4th December at 7pm. With added tension comes higher viewer numbers as 20.8 million people are expected to watch - a rise of 3.5m on the previous stage.
Retail
Most of the spectators for this match will opt to watch from home in another bid to save money. The 15.8mm fans tuning in from home will spend £218.6m preparing for the game. This figure is slightly lower than the spend for previous matches in the tournament, likely due to the time and day the match is played, and the fact that many fans will have already stocked up on match essentials. However, consumers will still purchase food and drink (£139.5m), sportswear (£27.8m), souvenirs (£8.9mm) and TV electricals (£42.4m) for the match.
Hospitality
It's expected that 5m people will watch from hospitality venues, spending £60.3m on food (£18.1m) and drink (£42.3m), equivalent to 9.9m pints.
England vs. France
As England enter the quarter-final against France on Saturday 10th December, 26.9m people are predicted to tune in - the highest viewer figure to date as the stakes grow high.
Retail
As with the previous matches, more people will watch from home than in hospitality venues as 21.1m people choose the budget-friendly option. This will lead to another boost in sales for retailers, with £100.4m to be spent on food and drink, £23.5m on sportswear, £7.8m spent on souvenirs, and £19.7m on TV electricals. This equates to £151.3m in total.
Hospitality
With overall viewer numbers up on previous games, hospitality viewing numbers will also be up, reaching 5.8m. This means the hospitality sector can expect to see sales hitting £71.2m, with £18.6m from food and £56.6m from drinks - or 12.2m pints.
About this report
The forecasts in this report are based on the assumption that England will reach the Quarter-finals and Wales will fail to go beyond the group stage. All spend is strictly tournament related.
Where shopper numbers or participant figures at each stage do not match up to the total number, this is due to individuals watching several matches or purchasing from multiple categories.
To allow us to clearly assess the impact of the Final, third place play-off spending has been grouped with the Semi-final matches.
This independent report into the forecasted retail and hospitality spending during the World Cup 2022 has been commissioned by VoucherCodes.co.uk. The research and predictions have been prepared by GlobalData.
GlobalData Retail provides clients with comprehensive data and insight on retailers, markets and consumers globally, helping them to sustain competitive advantage in a rapidly changing retail environment.
