The Needle: Senate and House Forecast
Last estimates generated at Nov. 9, 2022
The Needle: Senate and House Forecast
We stopped updating these forecasts at 4 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, Nov. 9, as the bulk of the remaining races will be decided by mail ballots that will take days to count. These graphics and estimates will no longer be updated.
Turning Off Our Estimates
The “red wave” did not materialize, and election night ended with many close races that will be decided by mail-in ballots. We expect the remaining vote that will decide control of Congress will take days, if not weeks, to count. Follow the latest election results here ›
Tracking the closest races in the Senate and House
Our election forecast is based on estimates for the outcomes of all Senate and House races. The tables below show the closest races, and the number of races leaning toward either party, in our estimates.
Senate races
49
DEM. WON OR FAVORED
49
REP. WON OR FAVORED
2
TOSSUPS
Race | Percent of votes in | NYT win probability | NYT estimate of final vote |
---|---|---|---|
Colo. | 72% | Dem.
|
D +14 |
Wash. | 52% | Dem.
|
D +11 |
N.H. | 81% | Dem.
|
D +9.0 |
Pa. | 93% | Dem.
|
D +4.0 |
Ariz. | 65% | 66% Dem. | D +2.8 |
Ga. * | >95% | 55% Dem. | D +0.5 |
Nev. | 69% | 55% Dem. | D +0.4 |
Wis. | 94% | 87% Rep. | R +1.3 |
N.C. | >95% | Rep.
|
R +3.7 |
Ohio | >95% | Rep.
|
R +6.6 |
Iowa | >95% | Rep.
|
R +12 |
Mo. | >95% | Rep.
|
R +13 |
House races
206
DEM. WON OR FAVORED
219
REP. WON OR FAVORED
10
TOSSUPS
Race | Percent of votes in | NYT win probability | NYT estimate of final vote |
---|---|---|---|
Ore. 6 | 63% | 66% Dem. | D +2.8 |
Nev. 3 | 60% | 64% Dem. | D +2.2 |
Nev. 1 | 69% | 62% Dem. | D +2.5 |
Wash. 8 | 53% | 61% Dem. | D +2.3 |
N.M. 2 | >95% | 59% Dem. | D +0.2 |
Calif. 13 | 42% | 53% Dem. | D +0.8 |
Calif. 27 | 34% | 56% Rep. | R +1.4 |
Ore. 5 | 66% | 57% Rep. | R +1.5 |
Calif. 22 | 32% | 57% Rep. | R +1.5 |
Colo. 8 | 68% | 59% Rep. | R +1.4 |
Colo. 3 | 88% | 68% Rep. | R +0.7 |
Ariz. 1 | 70% | 73% Rep. | R +4.4 |
Senate forecast in detail
Our Senate forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. These are our estimates for which party will win control of the Senate, and the estimated number of seats won by each party.
Chance of control
Leaning Dem.
66% chance of control
Estimated Senate seats
50 Dem.
50 Rep.
Estimated num. of seats
Key Senate races
The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, historical voting data, and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted.
Race | Percent of votes in | NYT win probability | NYT estimate of final vote |
---|---|---|---|
Calif. | 39% | Dem.
|
D +37 |
Md. | 68% | Dem.
|
D +32 |
Ore. | 68% | Dem.
|
D +23 |
Ill. | 84% | Dem.
|
D +17 |
N.Y. | 88% | Dem.
|
D +15 |
Conn. | >95% | Dem.
|
D +14 |
Colo. | 72% | Dem.
|
D +14 |
Wash. | 52% | Dem.
|
D +11 |
N.H. | 81% | Dem.
|
D +9.0 |
Pa. | 93% | Dem.
|
D +4.0 |
Ariz. | 65% | 66% Dem. | D +2.8 |
Ga. * | >95% | 55% Dem. | D +0.5 |
Nev. | 69% | 55% Dem. | D +0.4 |
Wis. | 94% | 87% Rep. | R +1.3 |
N.C. | >95% | Rep.
|
R +3.7 |
Ohio | >95% | Rep.
|
R +6.6 |
Iowa | >95% | Rep.
|
R +12 |
Mo. | >95% | Rep.
|
R +13 |
Fla. | >95% | Rep.
|
R +16 |
Ind. | 89% | Rep.
|
R +20 |
Utah | 59% | Rep.
|
R +24 |
Ky. | 91% | Rep.
|
R +24 |
Kan. | >95% | Rep.
|
R +24 |
S.C. | 90% | Rep.
|
R +26 |
How our Senate forecast has changed
These charts show how our forecasts have changed over the course of the night. As a rule, when the composition estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy.
Senate composition estimate
The lines below include an estimate of uncertainty. As more races are called, the uncertainty around these estimates will narrow.
Chance of Senate control
House forecast in detail
Our House forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. These are our estimates for which party will win control of the House, and the estimated number of seats won by each party.
Chance of control
Probably Rep.
83% chance of control
Estimated House seats
211 Dem.
224 Rep.
Estimated num. of seats
Key House races
The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, how those places have voted in previous elections and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted.
Race | Percent of votes in | NYT win probability | NYT estimate of final vote |
---|---|---|---|
R.I. 2 | >95% | Dem.
|
D +3.3 |
Maine 2 * | 81% | 80% Dem. | D +3.0 |
Ore. 6 | 63% | 66% Dem. | D +2.8 |
N.C. 13 | >95% | Dem.
|
D +2.6 |
Nev. 1 | 69% | 62% Dem. | D +2.5 |
Wash. 8 | 53% | 61% Dem. | D +2.3 |
Nev. 3 | 60% | 64% Dem. | D +2.2 |
Pa. 8 | 93% | 89% Dem. | D +2.0 |
Pa. 7 | 95% | 88% Dem. | D +1.3 |
Conn. 5 | >95% | 85% Dem. | D +1.2 |
Calif. 13 | 42% | 53% Dem. | D +0.8 |
N.Y. 18 | >95% | 75% Dem. | D +0.7 |
N.M. 2 | >95% | 59% Dem. | D +0.2 |
Colo. 3 | 88% | 68% Rep. | R +0.7 |
Iowa 3 | >95% | 73% Rep. | R +0.7 |
N.Y. 17 | >95% | 80% Rep. | R +0.9 |
N.Y. 4 | 91% | 82% Rep. | R +1.0 |
Calif. 27 | 34% | 56% Rep. | R +1.4 |
Colo. 8 | 68% | 59% Rep. | R +1.4 |
Calif. 22 | 32% | 57% Rep. | R +1.5 |
Ore. 5 | 66% | 57% Rep. | R +1.5 |
N.Y. 22 | 94% | >95% Rep. | R +2.1 |
N.Y. 19 | >95% | >95% Rep. | R +2.3 |
Mont. 1 | 87% | >95% Rep. | R +3.3 |
How our House forecast has changed
These charts show how our forecasts have changed over the course of the night. As a rule, when the composition estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy.
House composition estimate
The lines below include an estimate of uncertainty. As more races are called, the uncertainty around these estimates will narrow.
Chance of House control
Analyzing the vote
Your guide to the midterm results, from Times reporters