2018 midterm elections: Menendez-Hugin race for NJ Senate a 'dead heat,' poll says

Nicholas Pugliese
Trenton Bureau
Bob Menendez and Bob Hugin.

The race between U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., and his Republican challenger, Bob Hugin, is a “statistical dead heat,” according to a Stockton University poll of likely voters released Monday.

Menendez’s two-point advantage — 45 percent to Hugin’s 43 percent — is within the poll’s margin of error. The results are the most striking indication yet of just how tight the race has become with five weeks until Election Day.

“The Senate race at this point is up for grabs,” said Michael W. Klein, interim executive director of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton. 

The last public poll on the race, released by Quinnipiac University on Aug. 22, showed Menendez with a six-point lead.

Menendez, 64, finds himself in a closer-than-expected race despite a Democratic base energized by opposition to the administration of President Donald Trump. A loss by Menendez could dash any hopes of Democrats reclaiming control of the Senate, which Republicans currently control by the thinnest of margins, 51-49.

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Menendez's campaign downplayed the poll's results, noting that Stockton has historically underestimated Democratic performances in statewide races and "this is no different."

“We knew this would be a competitive race given the millions greedy drug company CEO Bob Hugin spent on TV [ads] he made off the backs of cancer victims and their families, but we are confident Senator Menendez will prevail on Election Day," the campaign said in a statement.

Hugin, on the other hand, said the poll showed how momentum was building for his candidacy.

“Today’s poll is no surprise," Hugin said in a statement. "Since launching my campaign, I’ve made over 400 campaign stops and met thousands of voters throughout the state. Whether you're a Democrat, Republican, or Independent, voters want a senator who will put New Jersey first and represent them with honor and integrity."

In a state with 900,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, Menendez’s seat would normally be considered safe. But since the senator survived a corruption trial last year and was admonished by the Senate Ethics Committee, Hugin, a former pharmaceutical executive, has used his personal wealth to bombard Menendez with ads attacking his ethics.

Menendez, who is seeking a third full Senate term, is viewed unfavorably by 54 percent of voters, with 30 percent having favorable views and 6 percent unsure, according to the poll.

Hugin, for his part, is viewed favorably by 34 percent and unfavorably by 21 percent, although 43 percent are not familiar with him. Only 10 percent are unfamiliar with Menendez.

Menendez has responded in recent weeks with ads of his own. He has sought to tie Hugin to Trump and portray Hugin, a Marine Corps veteran and the former CEO of Celgene, as a greedy pharmaceutical executive who got rich raising the price of drugs needed by cancer patients to stay alive. 

Both ad campaigns appear to have had some effect. According to the poll, 59 percent of voters say the corruption charges against Menendez are an extremely important or significant factor in their vote. 

At the same time, 51 percent say a claim by opponents that Hugin profited off an expensive cancer drug while CEO of a pharmaceutical company is an extremely important or significant factor in their votes.

Voters’ unfamiliarity with Hugin, 64, could represent an opportunity for Menendez, Klein said.

“With so many voters still unfamiliar with the Republican, Menendez will likely try to define his challenger in negative terms,” he said.

Selling Menendez short?

Menendez's campaign pointed out Monday that past Stockton polls released around the same time in the election cycle have underestimated Democrats' performance come November.

They undercut Hillary Clinton's statewide performance in 2016 by nine points and Cory Booker's in 2014 by seven, the campaign said. Each candidate went on to win by double-digit margins.

And in 2012, a Stockton poll showed Menendez with the support of 52 percent of voters even though he went on to win with 59 percent, the campaign said.  

"If history holds, Bob Menendez beats greedy drug company CEO Bob Hugin on Nov. 6," the campaign said. "Against a self-funded multimillionaire with virtually unlimited resources, we’d take that any day."

A pollster for Menendez drew attention on Twitter to what he said was one potential source of error in the Stockton poll.

"Only had 24 people aged 18-29 and 24 Latinos in sample of 578, both key Dem constituencies that are too small to weigh properly," said the pollster, Joel Benenson.

Stockton surveyed 531 likely New Jersey voters from Sept. 19 to 27. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.25 percentage points.

The poll also showed Donald Trump remains unpopular in New Jersey, with 22 percent of voters rating his job performance as “excellent,” 14 percent as “good,” 14 percent as “fair” and 50 percent as “poor.”

Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, fared somewhat better. Eleven percent said he is doing an excellent job, 30 percent good, 27 percent fair and 25 percent poor.

Email: pugliese@northjersey.com