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Meet the Press - February 27, 2022

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, Mark Warner, Rob Portman, Kori Schake, Clint Watts, Michael McFaul, Jeremy Bash, Andrea Mitchell, Danielle Pletka, Kristen Welker

CHUCK TODD:

This Sunday: Kyiv under siege. Ukraine putting up fiercer than expected resistance.

ERIN MCLAUGHLIN:

What happened when they tried to push into the city?

DMYTRO BILOTSERKOVETS:

They couldn't do anything.

ERIN MCLAUGHLIN:

Why?

DMYTRO BILOTSERKOVETS:

Because our self-defense killed them.

CHUCK TODD:

As Russian forces unleash heavy bombing on Kyiv overnight and entering the city of Kharkiv.

VITALI KLITSCHKO:

Please get into action now.

CHUCK TODD:

Ukraine's President Zelenskyy is becoming a national hero, rallying Ukraine and refusing to leave the country. Meanwhile, a growing refugee crisis, with some 370,000 already fleeing their homes. Anti-war demonstrations in dozens of cities across Russia.

UKRAINIAN WOMAN:

I came here to give blood for our soldiers.

CHUCK TODD:

And the U.S. and Europe impose new sanctions on Russia and Vladimir Putin. This morning we'll get reports from Ukraine, Moscow and Poland. I'll talk to the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas Greenfield, Democratic Senator Mark Warner, Republican Senator Rob Portman and we'll bring together experts on defense, diplomacy and cyber to discuss U.S. options in this growing conflict. Also, a historic appointment:

JUDGE KETANJI BROWN JACKSON:

I could only hope that my life and career will inspire future generations of Americans.

CHUCK TODD:

President Biden nominates Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman ever named to the Supreme Court. Joining me for insight and analysis are.

NBC News Chief Washington Correspondent Andrea Mitchell, Jeremy Bash, former chief of staff at the Defense Department and the CIA, NBC News Chief White House correspondent Kristen Welker and Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute. Welcome to Sunday and a special edition of Meet the Press.

ANNOUNCER:

From NBC News in Washington, the longest-running show in television history. This is a special edition of Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.

CHUCK TODD:

Good Sunday morning. As the Russian invasion began, Ukraine's President Zelenskyy said what the world was hearing was the sound of the iron curtain falling down and closing Russia from the other civilized world. Vladimir Putin has made it clear: He intends to reverse the fall of the Soviet empire. So will he really stop in Ukraine? Overnight, the Russians continued their heavy bombing of Kyiv and other cities, and have moved into Kharkiv, the country's second largest city. But they haven't taken over a city yet. The big story right now is the fierce resistance by Ukrainian fighters, led by President Zelenskyy, who have bloodied the Russians' noses and slowed their advance. Military aide to Ukraine is now pouring in. And late yesterday, the United States and its allies finally moved to cut Russia mostly off from the critical SWIFT banking system. There is a carve-out for Italy and Germany for their energy transactions. There are so many unanswered questions. Will Putin move into former Soviet republics like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, all of which are now members of NATO? Is NATO ready to confront Russia militarily if he makes that move? What effect, if any, will U.S. sanctions have on Putin's strategy? More importantly, what kind of advice is Putin getting? And is he acting rationally? Is he all there? And most importantly, is a Washington, already divided against itself, even able to tackle this crisis? In today's special edition of Meet the Press, we have it all covered, from the battlefield, to the refugee crisis, to Moscow, and Washington. And I'm going to begin with our chief foreign correspondent, Richard Engel, who is in the outskirts of Kyiv. And Richard, clearly, the story is this Ukrainian resistance and Russia's inability to I think have a quick invasion and success here in Ukraine. What are you seeing?

RICHARD ENGEL:

We are seeing that the Ukrainians are not only putting up a heavy fight, they are pulling together. We are on the outskirts of Kyiv right now. And, as we've been driving through towns and villages, we are seeing Ukrainians coming out, manning checkpoints, taking their hunting rifles, shotguns, standing next to Ukrainian troops. People had thought that by now the Ukrainian army may have to go underground. We are seeing many, many Ukrainian armored vehicles, tanks on the road. They are operating openly. They are cutting down signs by the roadside in an attempt to confuse advancing Russian troops. And according to the numbers coming out from the Ukrainian military, they believe that they have destroyed over 700 Russian armored vehicles, 150 Russian tanks, about 50 aircraft, helicopters and fixed-wings, and inflicted about 4,000 Russian casualties, Russian fatalities. And there are numerous reports of Russian troops simply running out of fuel, breaking down by the roadside and being detained in some cases by average Ukrainians who are handing them over to police, handing them over to authorities. So they are fighting back very hard.

CHUCK TODD:

And Richard, I'm just curious, we're seeing, while the Russian military's having success at cutting Ukraine off from ports and things like this, it's this fighting in the cities. They haven't gotten control of any city yet. It's clear that in order to do this, they may have to get bloodier. Have you seen any evidence that more Russian troops are coming?

RICHARD ENGEL:

Well, what we've been hearing is that the Russians have so far mobilized about half of the troops that they had positioned around the edges of Ukraine. And just earlier today, some Russian elements pushed into the city of Kharkiv, which has about 1.5 million people in it. And the Russian troops did get out of their vehicles, which is one of the first times we've seen that and tried to occupy part of the city. But they were pushed back. And there was heavy fighting. And, according to Ukrainian officials and videos that we've been seeing, the Russian troops were repelled from the city. So they haven't captured the capital. They haven't captured even other, smaller major cities. So yes, if they want to take the cities, they're going to have to get out of their cars. They're going to have to go house to house. And so far, they haven't even been able to establish and maintain a foothold in any major population centers.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, Richard Engel on the ground for us just outside of Kyiv. Richard, thanks very much. Look, we're also seeing now a huge refugee crisis. Joining me now to talk about that is Kelly Cobiella. She is at a train station in Poland where a train carrying more than 1,000 Ukrainian refugees arrived this morning. And Kelly, we know many Ukrainians are taking up the fight and staying in Ukraine. You're seeing a lot of families though with young children. Tell us about it.

KELLY COBIELLA:

Yeah, that's right, Chuck. And we've seen that over the past just three days. Seems like what you see behind me here at this train station, women and children, some of them very young children, who have been traveling for hours from all parts of the country, not just from the west, but also from Kyiv, from the center of the country. We see these emotional reunions at border crossings in Hungary and Moldova, in Romania and, of course, here in Poland where they have opened their borders, opened their arms to as many Ukrainian refugees as will arrive. That, according to Polish leadership here. But the journey is getting more perilous. We spoke to a woman who was on this train which arrived from Lviv, a city in the west this morning. She said that this journey, which normally takes two hours, took 16 hours. They left yesterday. She said at one point, they had to stop because there was fighting nearby. There were explosions. They had to wait until it was safe to go. They also had to reroute around a bombed out rail bridge. So it's getting more difficult even for people in the west to get out of the country. They're getting out by train and they're also getting out by foot at border crossings which, Chuck, I think we've been talking about over the past few days. The lines are incredibly long and people are waiting out in the cold, in the elements just to cross.

CHUCK TODD:

I know. Miles, and miles, and miles. Kelly Cobiella in Poland for us. Kelly, thank you. And now let's turn to Moscow. That's where we find Keir Simmons. He's been covering this story. And Keir, I think the other fascinating reaction to this is the fact so many Russian people are finding a way to express their opposition to this action. Tell us about it.

KEIR SIMMONS:

Well, that's right, Chuck. These are early days, but there's no doubt that what's happening in Ukraine is shaking Russian society. The number of protesters arrested is now up to 3,368. Hundreds of journalists signing a petition. The director of the Bolshoi Ballet signing a petition. Even the children of oligarchs and of Kremlin officials speaking out on social media against the war. And we're seeing, Chuck, economic unease as well from top to bottom. Lines at ATMs and oligarchs. Our hotel where we're staying, Chuck, asked us to forward payment on our rooms for fear that credit cards won't work in the days ahead. And I think we're seeing that anxiousness extend inside the walls of the Kremlin, Chuck. President Putin gave an address to the Russian people this morning where he praised the special operation to provide assistance to the people of Donbas. He did not mention the assault on Kyiv, suggesting even President Putin himself is concerned with how it may be going there. And in response, President Putin's allies are threatening both the Russian people and people in Ukraine. So the Interfax news agency reporting that the Russian prosecutor is now saying that sending money to Ukraine, if Russians do that, that will be considered treason and is threatening 20 years in prison for that. And those threats against Ukraine itself, well, President Putin's Chechen warlord is now calling on President Putin to change tactics and to start large scale operations, Chuck. That, a chilling call to unleash greater destruction, Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

Keir Simmons in Moscow for us. Keir, thanks very much. And joining me now is the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield. Ambassador, welcome to Meet The Press.

AMB. LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD:

Thank you. Delighted to be here.

CHUCK TODD:

Over the last 72 hours, we've seen almost a daily escalation in sanctions from the western alliance, whether – sometimes led by the United States, obviously Europeans have a lot to say about the SWIFT system. And I guess I – my first question is why has it been sort of this daily escalation? Why couldn't we have gotten all of this done on Thursday? Why has it taken until yesterday? And even that, we only have a partial removal of the Russian banks from the SWIFT system.

AMB. LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD:

Chuck, you know, we made clear from the beginning that we will escalate as the Russians escalate. And that's exactly what we have done. The president, in all of his announcements before, indicated that we will be prepared to put harsh sanctions on the Russians. They were aware that those sanctions were coming. And we have been consistent in applying those sanctions as we've seen the escalation by the Russians, in coordination, of course, with all of our European colleagues.

CHUCK TODD:

When we were first announcing sanctions, we were told it was about deterrence. I want to play a few clips here from various officials.

(BEGIN TAPE)

JAKE SULLIVAN:

The president believes that sanctions are intended to deter.

VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:

The purpose of the sanctions has always been, and continues to be, deterrence.

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

The sanctions are designed in the first instance to try to deter Russia from taking further aggression.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

And then President Biden admitted this.

(BEGIN TAPE)

PRES. JOE BIDEN:

No one expected the sanctions to prevent anything from happening.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

So I guess the question is: How does this end now? Meaning we’ve got – the sanctions did not deter. We've put in pretty harsh sanctions. We've gone through how it could be slightly harsher. But can this end with sanctions alone?

AMB. LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD:

Well, Chuck, we've been very clear – clear-eyed on this from the beginning. As the president noted, we were going to apply harsh sanctions. And initially, they were an attempt to prevent Russia from taking this aggressive action, but it is Vladimir Putin's decision on whether he will stop what he's doing and listen to the voices of, of, of the world, the voices that have condemned him, or he will continue. And if he continues, we will continue to apply sanctions. But at the same time, we were preparing for just this action. And the president has approved moving more troops to support our NATO colleagues. We've provided additional support to the Ukrainian government, just over the past few days, close to $1 billion, and billions since this all started. So, we – we're clear – clear-eyed. This has been a two-pronged approach. We hoped that the Russians would listen to the pressures that we were putting them under, but they didn't, so they have to continue to feel additional sanctions and additional pressures on their economy. And they will feel the pain.

CHUCK TODD:

President Zelenskyy called on Russia to be removed from the United Nations. You and I were talking beforehand, we know that there's a charter that is not something that can just be done with a vote or anything like this. But it is sort of odd that Russia's currently in charge of the council right now. It's a rotation; I get how that works. And the world is trying to condemn Russia, and it looks like the U.N. is just sort of feckless at this. How can the U.N. play a critical role here?

AMB. LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD:

I would absolutely disagree with your characterization that this is feckless. We have had three meetings in the Security Council and just this week, on Friday alone, we put forward a resolution in which 81 countries co-sponsored with us. 44 of them stood at the podium with me. So I – we're not being feckless. Russia is hearing a very unified voice from the Security Council and it has to be very uncomfortable for them. They are a member of the Security Council and, until Monday, they will be president of the, of the Security Council. As you noted, it's rotational, but they can't prevent the Security Council from taking actions. And we have taken some very strong actions since this started.

CHUCK TODD:

Do you expect another, another vote to try to condemn what Russia's doing? I know there's been some talk of that. And if so, do you think this time India, UAE, some others will get on board?

AMB. LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD:

Well, we're going to have a meeting – another emergency meeting of the Security Council today, in which we will make a decision to call for an emergency session of the General Assembly, which we plan to have on Monday. And then, hopefully later in the week, we will have a vote, possibly as early as Wednesday, on a General Assembly resolution that the Russians cannot veto.

CHUCK TODD:

I go back to – is there any penalty, any mechanism at all to penalize the Russians' behavior at the United Nations? Is there anything?

AMB. LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD:

We can isolate them. We can isolate them in the United Nations. We can isolate them in U.N. specialized agencies. They are feeling that isolation. There will be a meeting at – in Geneva, at the U.N. Human Rights Council, where they, again, will be called out and, and their aggressions will be brought to the attention of the world. So, again, I – we have a number of tools to put pressure on the Russians and we're using all of those tools.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, I really appreciate you coming on and sharing the administration's perspective. Let's hope this works.

AMB. LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD:

Thank you – thank you very much, Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

And now we have the rare opportunity of having a Democratic and a Republican senator join us together. Democrat Mark Warner, he's chairman of the Senate intelligence committee; Republican Rob Portman, he sits on the Senate foreign relations committee. The two senators actually traveled together to Munich earlier – late last week, so senators, welcome back to Meet the Press. Got a couple of pieces of news that have trickled out literally in the last few minutes. Senator Portman, let me start with the news that President Zelenskyy has agreed to send a delegation to meet with a Russian delegation on the border of Ukraine and Belarus. Obviously, we're always going to be pro-diplomacy if diplomacy can work here. Any advice to the Ukrainians on how to manage these negotiations?

SEN. ROB PORTMAN:

I think the Ukrainians know how to do it and they also know to be distrustful of whatever the Russians say, since everything that Vladimir Putin has said and other Russian officials has been propaganda, disinformation. So they need to be careful. And by the way, Belarus is where the Russians wanted to have the meeting. Belarus is now under control of Russia, and Belarus is aiding and abetting the Russians' attack on their neighbor Ukraine. So it's outrageous. Let me say, Chuck, at the outset, our hearts go out to Ukrainian people today. I mean, this is something where the American people are standing firmly with Ukraine. There are over 40 rallies around the country today in support of Ukraine. I'll be at one in Cleveland, Ohio this afternoon. But around the world you see this, including in Russia. The world's standing up in ways that, frankly, I haven't seen this kind of unity since 9/11. And I think that is something that will, in the end, be very helpful. But we've got to provide more military assistance. We've got to tighten up these sanctions further. By the way, in your conversation with the ambassador, you talked about how sanctions did not deter. That's because tough sanctions were not put in place. So we could have and should have done more, and many of us were calling for that. But we are where we are now, so we need to continue to tighten it up, including putting all Russian banks under this SWIFT ban.

CHUCK TODD:

Senator Warner, the other piece of news today is Vladimir Putin has, it's a bit of a saber rattle here, has ordered his Russian nuclear deterrent forces on alert. How should the United States respond to that?

SEN. MARK WARNER:

Well, first of all, the United States’ response has been stronger because we've actually brought all our European and other allies along with us. Rob and I were in Munich last week. The Europeans were believing, and mostly in but not fully in. But look at what's happened over the last few days. We've gotten Nord Stream 2 sanctions. We've personally sanctioned Putin. He now joins that group of, like Gaddafi and Assad, as one of the few world leaders ever personally sanctioned. We have the SWIFT actions. Because if we'd sanctioned SWIFT, that's a European organization, the fact that SWIFT is actually in concert with us, kicking Russian banks out. And you're seeing even former Russian allies like Kazakhstan, where Putin sent troops recently, refuse to back Putin. I think Putin totally underestimated both the Ukrainians' fight, and I want to echo what Rob said, that we have great respect for Zelenskyy rallying the nation, and this worldwide support for the Ukrainians.I think he underestimated the Ukrainians' resolve. So far, thank God, he's not done everything. He's not throwing cyber attacks the way we expected. But these are very dangerous days. And one last point, remarkably what he's also been able to do is unify the vast majority of us in the Senate, Democrats and Republicans alike.

CHUCK TODD:

Which has been quite difficult lately.

SEN. ROB PORTMAN:

Right, with the Ukrainian people, with NATO. And he's going to pay a high price.

CHUCK TODD:

I've got to ask you about something that the ranking member in your intel committee tweeted overnight – tweeted on Friday night, Marco Rubio. He said this, Senator Warner: "I wish I could share more, but for now I can say it's pretty obvious to many that something is off with Putin. He has always been a killer, but his problem now is different and significant. It would be a mistake to assume that Putin would react the same way he would've five years ago." This is an open question. Is Putin a rational actor? What do our intelligence folks tell you?

SEN. MARK WARNER:

Chuck, as the chairman of the Intelligence Committee, I'm not going to comment on any specific intelligence. But what we do know is that over the last couple years, Putin has been more and more isolated. He's not been in the Kremlin for the most part. He's been down at his place in Sochi, or his dacha outside of Moscow. And when you are an authoritarian leader and you have less and less inputs, and you're only hearing from people that want to say to the boss, "Hey, you're right," I think that leads to miscalculation. And I think that is what has happened in the case of his invasion in Ukraine.

CHUCK TODD:

Senator Portman, he went into Ukraine. He did not go into Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Those three are NATO countries. Ukraine was not. In hindsight, should we have brought Ukraine into the NATO alliance?

SEN. ROB PORTMAN:

Yes. And I think that's a very important point to make. Even now, Chuck, we should be allowing Ukraine – and by the way, allowing other countries that may want to come forward, Georgia is one, I'm told that Finland and Sweden may be two others at some point – we should allow them to come into NATO. There's a process called the MAP process which is basically a road map to get into NATO. Many of us have been calling for NATO to allow Ukraine to go down that path. We should've done it. If we had done it, I don't think that we would be in the situation we're in now. And I think other people said the opposite. They said, "Well, if we allow them into NATO, this will make Russia mad." Well, you know what? Here they are –

CHUCK TODD:

Anyway.

SEN. ROB PORTMAN:

– with this atrocity in Ukraine, killing already hundreds of Ukrainians, wounding thousands of them, unprecedented since World War II to have one country invade another country's borders. And if NATO were there, I don't think he'd be doing it, assuming that NATO would respond, which I'm seeing. I agree with what Mark just said, is that Putin miscalculated, you know? He thought this would divide NATO. In fact, it has strengthened NATO and brought us together in ways we haven't seen in years.

CHUCK TODD:

In fact, was it a mistake for President Biden, Senator Warner, to rule out any troops in Ukraine for this reason? We've always had a policy of strategic ambiguity when it comes to Taiwan. Make China not sure what we're going to do. Should we have done the same?

SEN. MARK WARNER:

I don't think the American public, or for that matter our NATO allies, would've been wanting American or NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine. I think the administration, I've criticized them many times, but NATO a year ago was broken in the aftermath of President Trump. Even four months ago, NATO, other than us and the British, the rest of the NATO nations were not fully bought into this threat. They are fully bought in at this point. And I think you’re going to see – I still worry about, for example, one of the things we talked about out there, if Putin launches his full cyber capabilities, shuts down the power in Ukraine, does that somehow shut down the power in Eastern Poland as well? Because once you let malware out, could that shut off the hospitals for--

CHUCK TODD:

How do you feel about this idea that Article 5 could be invoked on a cyber attack?

SEN. MARK WARNER:

Cyber attack is, again, one of those areas where we've had so-called "strategic ambiguity." But if you suddenly see American troops get hurt because the power's been shot off or Polish citizens die because the hospitals go down, you're very rapidly approaching what I think is Article 5 violation.

CHUCK TODD:

By the way, are you also open to NATO expansion?

SEN. MARK WARNER:

I'm open to NATO expansion.

CHUCK TODD:

Are you ready to put Ukraine in now at this point --

SEN. MARK WARNER:

That has to be done --

CHUCK TODD:

– or at least after this is over?

SEN. MARK WARNER:

That actually has to be done in concert with all 30 NATO nations. There is a process that I think the administration and, frankly, NATO was right, by not during Putin's pressure campaign to somehow say, "We should take away that right of Ukraine to have the opportunity to join NATO."

CHUCK TODD:

All right. Senator Portman, I'm going to change the subject for one quick subject. There's a Supreme Court nominee. I don't think this is going to be a very contentious hearing, but I'm curious. What would it take for you to vote to confirm her?

SEN. ROB PORTMAN:

Well, I'm going to look at her record and look at her qualifications, as I think people will. In this case, I don't think, Chuck, it will be as partisan as we've seen in the past, as we did, as an example, with Judge Kavanaugh when he was nominated. As you know, she'll be replacing another liberal on the Court. And Democrats have 50 votes, and plus one with the vice president, they have the ability to confirm. But I think the rest of us on the Republican side are going to be looking at her record, looking at her qualifications. We don't believe you ought to legislate from the bench. We think the Supreme Court focus ought to be on protecting our rights and following the Constitution, and that's what we'll be looking for.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, Senator Rob Portman, Republican from Ohio. Senator Warner, I didn't ask you, but I assume you're for her.

SEN. MARK WARNER:

Listen, I think she actually has the qualifications. But one thing we could do right now, back on the issue on hand, while Portman and I had the bill that would require when cyber attacks take place that the government be notified so we can share with the private sector, you want to make us stronger and safer? Let's get that piece of legislation done this week.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, well, we'll take a look at that. Senators Portman and Warner, really appreciate you coming on together, especially at a time like this. And let's hope that the folks in Ukraine will get some relief soon. When we come back, I'm going to talk to experts that we've brought together on the military, cyber, and diplomacy fronts about how the Ukraine crisis might play out, and what options the U.S. has now.

[BEGIN TAPE]

OLEKSIY SOROKIN:

Because of one madman, one absolutely insane person, I'm sitting in a bomb shelter. That's the world we are living in in 2022 in Europe.

[END TAPE]

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. So what options does the United States have to help the Ukraine beyond sanctions and sending military equipment? What happens if the war, by accident or design, spreads to NATO countries? How likely is it that Vladimir Putin's designed to end with Ukraine? We're about to get our three experts to discuss the war and its implications. Kori Schake, senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, cyber expert Clint Watts, distinguished research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and from Stanford, the former U.S. ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul. Kori, let me start with you. First of all, we're sending all this military aid. We're sending all this equipment to a country in the middle of a war. Just logistically, is it realistic that we're going to be able to get all these arms to the Ukrainians?

KORI SCHAKE:

Sure, the Ukrainians are in control of most of their own borders. And taking it up to the border and handing it over to the Ukrainians, willing and able to fight for their country is what's already going on. Several NATO countries are already convoying military equipment to the Ukrainians.

CHUCK TODD:

The next step here for us in the next week or two, should we expect more troops to be sent to NATO countries in Eastern Europe?

KORI SCHAKE:

Well, we're sending a lot of troops to NATO countries. The NATO reaction force has already been sent as well. These are good things. Reminding the Russians that we're prepared to defend ourselves and defend our allies is a stabilizing message right now.

CHUCK TODD:

Clint, we brought you here. I think there's a lot of us – and I'm curious – that are surprised we haven't seen a cyber attack against the United States yet or against the West. What are you seeing in your research?

CLINT WATTS:

It's an onion, right? If you look at the core, Ukrainians under cyber attack for eight years. And it's been intense. There are some reports of some destructive malware. You may have seen DHS, CISA put out some warnings about that. So we need to ratchet it up. I think this really speaks to the point about what are we going to do for cyber response? We have been delinquent on coming up with a solution for this for the last decade. And we've been talking about NATO: what is a cyber NATO? Attack on one, is it an attack on all? It's time to figure those things out so we have a unified response.

CHUCK TODD:

Earlier this week there were some reports that President Biden has been given at least the options of potentially using offensive cyber capabilities against Russia. How likely is that going to happen? Or was that probably designed to saber rattle Russia a little bit?

CLINT WATTS:

I think it's some of both. I mean, it's good to have these things in our pocket. But it's also time to set that deterrence. There are two aspects to this war, really three, that Putin can use: nuclear, cyber, and disinformation, misinformation to really put us on our heels and destabilize us. So if we can keep it limited, we can use it in scope, and we go off of specific targets, maybe it's the military, maybe it's parts in Russia, maybe certain parts of the banking system to send a message, I think we need to figure out that there's something between absolute destruction of our cyber space and not doing anything at all.

CHUCK TODD:

Ambassador McFaul, let's go to another way that this could end. And that is if Putin either recalculates, and maybe that's what these peace talks are about, or as Admiral Stavridis said to me in my podcast, "There's a Julius Caesar solution." What do you see right now with Putin? And do you think he's a rational actor right now?

MICHAEL MCFAUL:

You know, Chuck, that word "rational actor" is very elastic, right? To get kicked out of SWIFT, as happened to Russia yesterday, and then to have the president of Russia get in front of his generals and say, "We need to prepare for a nuclear war," that doesn't sound very rational to me. I'm nervous that Mr. Putin has been believing his propaganda for decades. Remember, this guy's been in power for 22 years. He doesn't listen to his aides. Even when I was ambassador eight years ago, he was very dismissive of anybody around him. He's out at his compound, doesn't come into town very much. And under Covid, he's been more isolated. And if you watch and listen to him, and I met him in 1991, I've been watching him since he was prime minister in 1999. I sat in the room with him for five years when I worked in the Obama administration. I speak Russian, I listen to him, and I know what he says. He's increasingly unhinged in the way that he talks about the regime. Just yesterday, talking about Zelenskyy being a neo-Nazi, let's remind everybody watching, he's Jewish, and a drug addict. That doesn't sound like somebody that's going to sit down and negotiate a peaceful outcome.

CHUCK TODD:

So if that's the case, then how do you create policy if you know he's an irrational actor?

MICHAEL MCFAUL:

Well, one deterrence, of course, we need to be vigilant. This nuclear threat especially, I think, we need to respond to. I would hope that General Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, would be calling his counterpart today, Mr. Gerasimov, to clarify exactly what he meant by those statements. Number two, I think this is about the war, you know? The sanctions are great. I support them 100%. But they take months and years to have effect. It's really about winning the war on the ground. We need to support the Ukrainians who are fighting. And three, if he succeeds in his ultimate objective, which is regime change, and force Zelenskyy out of power, arrest him, or kill him, we need to continue to support the resistance. I'm convinced, Chuck, there is no way that Ukrainians will submit to some kind of puppet regime from Russia. That is not going to happen. But to unravel that could take a long time.

CHUCK TODD:

Look, they've twice gotten rid of puppet regimes. Kori, it's been fascinating waking up every morning, seeing Zelenskyy alive and thriving. And you can see the Western alliance having the same feeling, going, "We should do more. We should've done more." I get the sense now there's a lot of regret in Europe.

KORI SCHAKE:

Well, all of us should've done more for the protection and defense of Ukraine. But now what Putin is trying to do in part with this nuclear threat is collapse Western solidarity. What he wanted was to end the post Cold War order, and he's rejuvenated it.

CHUCK TODD:

NATO's never felt more relevant.

KORI SCHAKE:

It's a delight to behold that Western countries are standing strong and squaring their shoulders together.

CHUCK TODD:

What do you expect our official response to be to this nuclear saber rattling by Putin?

KORI SCHAKE:

I hope it will be the response that the French foreign minister gave, which is that we too have nuclear weapons, and we too are prepared to defend ourselves, our allies, and our interests.

CHUCK TODD:

Clint, should Americans expect that we're going to get attacked by the Russians? On cyber – in cyber in some form?

CLINT WATTS:

I think so, in some form. But I also think Americans need to learn that they can go without Netflix for an hour and we will be okay. We don't have resilience in this country around cyber. And I think the same part with the administration. We keep saying Putin is playing chess. He is not. He is playing poker. We need to call his bluff. If the Ukrainians can hold for another week, the supply lines are not there, he cannot stabilize his rear areas. We have a real chance to stop Putin in his tracks and give him a decisive loss.

CHUCK TODD:

We do, yeah. Go get 'em, President Zelenskyy. Hey, thank you guys. Really appreciate it. Mike, Kori, Clint, very good stuff. When we come back, presidents typically have benefited from a rally-around-the-flag effect when war breaks out. But what about President Biden? Panel is next.

[BEGIN TAPE]:

UKRAINIAN WOMAN:

What Russian forces want from us. They want murder. They want our men to be killed and our women to be in panic.

[END TAPE]

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. The panel is here. NBC News Chief Washington correspondent, Andrea Mitchell; Jeremy Bash, former chief of staff at the Defense Department and at the CIA; Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute; and NBC News Chief White House Correspondent, Kristen Welker. Kristen, I'll let you kick things off here. The president overnight seemed to maybe get more European buy-in on the SWIFT after he almost was dismissive of it before. What is really happening here and is this White House disappointed that the Europeans haven't even gone further?

KRISTEN WELKER:

Well, I think that President Biden, and he said during that press conference that there were divisions among the Europeans. Behind the scenes, I'm told there was a lot of arm twisting, trying to get everyone on board. And so what you saw yesterday is the Europeans come together and agree to kick certain Russian financial institutions out of the SWIFT banking institution. And I think that caught the Russians off guard, as has just about everything else that we've witnessed, the protests in the street in Russia, the fact that Zelenskyy has been so defiant, the fact that the Ukrainians have held them off night after night. So, the question is what does the administration do now. They are looking to Congress to get more funding and, I think, more military support.

ANDREA MITCHELL:

But what they really have to make is a big decision about counter insurgency. How involved are we going to get, overtly or covertly, inside Ukraine or supporting training outside Ukraine? There is a dispute over that. But you know, what they did on SWIFT, there are still big holes. It's Swiss cheese, really, on SWIFT because first they have to wait for the Belgian leaders, the board of directors to approve it next week. They've got a big cutout for any banks that are involved in energy transactions. So, that's to protect Germany and Italy and others. And which banks are those? They could be some of the worst oligarch-controlled banks. So, let's wait to see exactly how it's implemented.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, but Putin, I think he looks on his heels. Do you agree?

DANIELLE PLETKA:

He looks on his heels, but he's not.

CHUCK TODD:

Can we keep him there?

DANIELLE PLETKA:

No, we can't keep him there. This is a very, very serious country. They're not as serious as we are, but they've got a big military, they've got nuclear weapons, they've got enough personnel and enough fire power to eventually, eventually do what they want in Ukraine. The problem is at what cost and eventually what are we going to do? I mean, this is the question that Andrea raises. And you know, I do think the sanctions are a big part of this. The fact that the sanctions have all of these loopholes is a big problem. What are we doing on the Russian Central Bank? What are we going to supply to the Ukrainians in order to support them? How are we going to backfill Poland and others that are depleting their own defensive stocks in order to support the Ukrainians? None of those questions has been answered.

ANDREA MITCHELL:

Well, a senior official did say last night that they are disarming the Russian Central Bank and stopping it from being able to support the ruble. I'm not sure that's possible to do.

DANIELLE PLETKA:

And by the way, sorry, Jeremy, but you realize that the Treasury has done nothing. I went looking all over the Treasury site to see what the rules were, unh-uh (Negative), nothing yet.

JEREMY BASH:

This is a huge miscalculation by Putin. And I think this is like the Soviets in Afghanistan. And I think this may be an opportunity for the United States and the west to actually deliver a very fatal blow to Russia's ambitions on the global stage. I think --

CHUCK TODD:

How?

JEREMY BASH:

I think swallowing Ukraine, a country the size of Texas, with 40 million people, is unprecedented since World War II. And if the United States can train and equip the Ukrainians and, I think, engage in a second Charlie Wilson's War, basically the sequel to the movie and the book, which is arming and training a determined force that will shoot Russian aircraft out of the sky, open up those tanks with can-openers, like the javelins, and kill Russians, which is what our equipment is doing, I think this is a huge opportunity to hit Putin very hard.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Well, and I think that the Ukrainian defiance has actually bought them a little bit more time and bought Washington a little bit more time to figure out exactly what they are going to do. And this is a rare moment, all of the loopholes you mentioned, Andrea, where you have Republicans and Democrats actually pretty united, saying, "We have to do more." Looking at each other, point the finger and saying --

CHUCK TODD:

Because you wake up every morning and you're watching the Ukrainians fight.

KRISTEN WELKER:

– let's get back to the table and figure it out. Yes.

JEREMY BASH:

Yes.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Exactly.

ANDREA MITCHELL:

And Zelenskyy and his videos. You know, I mean, I think of him as sort of the Jon Stewart, you know, the politically active comedian, now president. And the question is are they going to be crushed because Russia knows how to crush them if they want to. If Putin is crazy enough to try to take on the apartment buildings and the civilian populations and move in and move his people out of tanks -- you saw the tank that went up and swallowed the car, the man, the driver survived. But if he's crazy enough to do that, yes, there'll be reactions, but he'll crush the reactions. And if you look at these protests, the protesters are going to be crushed.

CHUCK TODD:

Jeremy, what is our ability to gum up, if we're concerned that Putin is crazy enough to try a tactical nuke, that's been my concern, that not a full war, but that he might try something, you know, do we have the ability to stop this?

JEREMY BASH:

We have tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, Chuck. We have national missile defenses to protect the homeland. But if he fires off a nuclear weapon in Europe, you know, that's going to be a very obviously tragic situation. And the only way to stop him there is to deter him by saying we're going to make you pay ten, 20, 50 times harder than anything you can hit us with.

CHUCK TODD:

Is it realistic? Is the Julius Caesar solution realistic, Dany?

DANIELLE PLETKA:

The Julius Caesar solution being that someone stabs him in the rotunda? No. I don't --

CHUCK TODD:

I say this because if you squeeze the oligarchs hard enough, right, if you squeeze the rich elites around him, will they try to do something?

ANDREA MITCHELL:

On March 15th, perhaps?

DANIELLE PLETKA:

The Ides of March are coming. No, I don't think it's realistic, as much as I think highly of Jim Stavridis, who suggested that. Look, Bashar al-Assad is still in power. Putin is a much savvier, much more shrewd tyrant. He's not going to put anybody who might stab him in the rotunda anywhere near him.

ANDREA MITCHELL:

He's only talking to two people, you know, right now. That's one of the problems. He's so isolated. He's not talking to the Lavrovs and the others who have more Western experience.

CHUCK TODD:

Kristen, does the White House realize the State of the Union probably is only going to be remembered for whatever he says about Ukraine and Russia?

KRISTEN WELKER:

That, right now, is the key question inside the White House. I have asked if he has recast his entire speech. There are some who want him to make this State of the Union address a message that we are in a fight right now, democracies against autocracies. It's not clear that they are prepared to go that far. At this point in time, it seems the speech is still very focused on inflation, but --

CHUCK TODD:

It would be a little weird to hear the words Build Back Better, I'll be honest.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Yes, but Chuck, here's the thing. This is a moment where foreign policy is intersecting with domestic politics. Everything that happens in Russia right now, every step that the U.S. takes impacts inflation. So, the White House has to figure out how to really get that message across that the president is listening, that he gets it, and that he's prepared to do something about it.

CHUCK TODD:

Well, if you look at the polls, I don't know if the public's listening to him right now.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Well, this is a chance for him --

CHUCK TODD:

Whether that's fair or unfair to him, it's just a fact, yes.

KRISTEN WELKER:

--to seize the mantle back, but the question is is he going to do it.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, we're going to do a little more politics after the break here. When we come back, how – we were just talking about that. How punishing Russia could end up costing Americans at home. Stay with us.

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back, Data Download time. Russia's invasion of Ukraine this week is not just an international story. It's going to have deep impacts right here in the United States as well, particularly with our economy, which we know will impact how voters feel about the direction of the country and its leadership. You can just look, the simplest way to look at it- the Dow. Yes, it's just one index and people invest all over, but at the end of the day, this has the sort of impact on the national psyche. The Dow down some 7% since the beginning of the year. And if you look just in the last two weeks, it's been extraordinarily volatile. It has gone down, actually made a nice little comeback at the end of the week, but still down overall as this crisis has continued. But it's not just on stocks. The price of oil- that we've also seen climb about 24% since the start of the year. Yes, as Russia, as they were building up troops around Ukraine, we kept seeing this number inch up. By the way, the president did try to get Saudi Arabia to pump some more oil. That has not happened yet. This will easily have an impact on our economy. And then there's this. You realize Russia and Ukraine account for some 1/3 of all wheat around the world. And while we don't get a lot of wheat from Ukraine, it is pushing up the price of wheat overall, which will have some sort of strain on our supply, which of course, will do what? Raise the price of a loaf of bread at the grocery store. When we come back, the story that most other weeks would be dominating the news. President Biden names Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court. Stay with us.

[BEGIN TAPE]

PRES. JOE BIDEN:

For too long, our government and our courts haven't looked like America. I believe it's time that we have a court that reflects the full talents and greatness of our nation.

[END TAPE]

CHUCK TODD:

Andrea Mitchell, we were just talking with Kristen there at the end. Maybe the only other thing he can accomplish at the State of the Union is introducing her again perhaps and making a quick case for her. But this is both historical and it's going to be sort of a non-story, it feels like, in about three weeks.

ANDREA MITCHELL:

It's going to be a non-story unless the Republicans make a critical mistake, which is to keep calling her a left-wing whatever, which she is not. She has extraordinary credentials. All three of these women did. And he made the choice of the person who had most recently been confirmed by this same Senate and also is in that court just below the Supreme Court, the mini Supreme Court. So, it was a logical decision, not as a political decision. And she brings so much experience, so much knowledge. She's a former clerk. She has the criminal justice, you know, defense experience. It's just such a mistake for the Republican party to paint her --

CHUCK TODD:

It does not meant they're going to --

ANDREA MITCHELL:

Well, Mitch McConnell was a little bit --

CHUCK TODD:

I mean, you heard Rob Portman, though.

ANDREA MITCHELL:

Yes, but he may not represent everyone. And I was surprised by Lindsey Graham because it's so unusual for a senator, just eight months after voting to confirm her for this other court, to now go against her.

JEREMY BASH:

Judge Jackson has been confirmed three times. I mean, she's been confirmed three times. She has been a federal judge for nine years, three times more than Judge Amy Coney Barrett was. I mean, she's eminently qualified. This is a no-brainer.

CHUCK TODD:

The most important credential, she came from the Miami-Dade Public School System.

JEREMY BASH:

That's huge.

CHUCK TODD:

I don't know who else did at the table. But, Dany, I'm guessing the only noise we really hear from the right is noise for raising money purposes and that's about it, right.

DANIELLE PLETKA:

I don't think that the Republicans are going to in any meaningful way oppose her. I think the only thing that we're going to see is the fact that she's been reversed repeatedly in her judgments. She's only been on the D.C. Circuit for less than a year. So, she hasn't really gotten any decisions out there to criticize. But I agree with Andrea. I think that this is not going to be a big story unless someone does something dumb and puts their foot in their mouth, which, you know, has happened in the history of --

CHUCK TODD:

It's the United States Senate.

DANIELLE PLETKA:

I was about to say, it has happened in the history of the world, but I think it's very unlikely.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, I want to pivot to somewhat of a sidebar story of what we're being here with Putin and Ukraine, and that is this cabal on the right that seems to like Putin. Look, even former President Trump, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, all comfortably calling him shrewd and smart. Take a listen.

[BEGIN TAPE]

PRES. DONALD TRUMP:

The problem is not that Putin is smart, which of course he's smart, but the real problem is that our leaders are dumb, so dumb.

MIKE POMPEO:

Very shrewd, very capable. I have enormous respect for him.

[END TAPE]

CHUCK TODD:

Look, he is scrambled now. And he's not alone. It's been interesting that, whoa, all of a sudden all these Putin lovers are realizing, "Oh, I bought the propaganda."

KRISTEN WELKER:

Well, and Republicans with whom I spoke are just so frustrated because they say this is a moment where we could talk about the strength of the Republican party when it comes to foreign policy. And now it's a missed opportunity because you have the headlines of Trump and Pompeo praising Putin. And so, they're scratching their heads, they're trying to turn the page. By the way, former President Trump was one of the few people at CPAC who talked about Putin because everyone else there wanted to ignore the fact that he had made those controversial comments.

JEREMY BASH:

Why is Trump slavering over Putin? Why?

CHUCK TODD:

I don't understand it either.

ANDREA MITCHELL:

Well, remember Helsinki. I mean, you have to go back to Helsinki. We were there, Kristen and I, sitting next to each other. And it's slack-jawed when former President Trump, at the time President Trump, defended Putin's take on 2016 and disagreed with his own head of national security, which led to the DNI contradicting him in real time --

KRISTEN WELKER:

I remember because I covered former President Trump --

CHUCK TODD:

You're smirking over there, Dany.

KRISTEN WELKER:

I covered former President Trump. He likes strong men, remember. And so, this is something that we saw consistently throughout his presidency, Dany.

DANIELLE PLETKA:

It is. I think President Trump's judgment on Russia and on Putin has not been awesome. I think Mike Pompeo misspoke. I don't think that Mike Pompeo actually deeply --

ANDREA MITCHELL:

He said it several times, Dany.

DANIELLE PLETKA:

I know, Andrea, but I don't think that's what he believes.

DANIELLE PLETKA:

Hang on. First of all, there are four of you and one of me. I'm the only Republican sitting here. Hang on a second.

ANDREA MITCHELL:

We're not Republicans or Democrats; we're journalists.

CHUCK TODD:

Well, three of us --

DANIELLE PLETKA:

I'm not going to touch that, baby. What I'm trying to say here is that I think that there's a missed opportunity, as you say, largely because of these stupid, stupid statements and because there's so much that Republicans can do in Congress. We've seen Republicans push for much stronger sanctions than the Democrats have pushed for. Push on President Biden for a larger supplemental. Ask him why he wasn't prepared despite this excellent information campaign he ran against Russia. If you knew what was coming, why didn't you prepare?

ANDREA MITCHELL:

That's all fair criticism. But let me just say about Mike Pompeo, he is so eager to get to the right of Ted Cruz and other 2024 wannabes that to embrace Putin and align himself with Trump on that just shows that he doesn't believe it, okay, he's a smart guy. He's a West Point guy.

DANIELLE PLETKA:

Then he's going to write himself out of 2024. I think that people have enough judgment to see that when someone says something like that, you can't unhear it. I can't speak for every voter, but --

JEREMY BASH:

Yeah, but it's also dangerous because if one of these people--

ANDREA MITCHELL:

It's being used by Russia's propaganda --

DANIELLE PLETKA:

Of course.

JEREMY BASH:

– were to be president today, Putin would have much more of a field day than he is even having. The NATO Alliance would be fractured if Donald Trump were president.

DANIELLE PLETKA:

Jeremy, that is absolutely untrue. And there is a poll that just came out --

DANIELLE PLETKA:

I'm sorry, I couldn't disagree with you more.

ANDREA MITCHELL:

Oh, my God, Dany, you know better than that.

DANIELLE PLETKA:

I actually do know better than that, Andrea.

KRISTEN WELKER:

But Pompeo has not figured out how to answer for why he said it in the first place. And if he has any desire to run in 2024, he's got to figure it out.

DANIELLE PLETKA:

Okay, but this is politics. What we're talking about is national security.

ANDREA MITCHELL:

It's dangerous when it gets on Russian television.

DANIELLE PLETKA:

Yes, I agree.

CHUCK TODD:

We're going to end it there and welcome to what I think is going to be a new political world that we live in now going forward and where security in Europe is going to be a huge issue. We'll see you next week because, if it's Sunday, it's Meet The Press.