Mobility in 2050 - Part I
Youngster, enjoying Mobility is 2050 - Courtesy to Continental

Mobility in 2050 - Part I

How will mobility look like in 2050? Nobody knows, since nothing is as hard to predict as the future! Who was able, back in 1990, to predict accurately how we should live in 2020. Did you retrieve any of those documents, produced in 1990? To what extend corresponds the prediction with the actual situation?

Nevertheless, as a mobility expert, it is my role to develop a long-term vision and to have also a view on the intermediate steps, that will come in the near future and will lead us towards that long-term point in time.

As 2050 is still 30 years ahead of us, many things can go into a different direction and since they can influence one another, there is only a probability of chance that things will happen the way I describe it herewith. Nevertheless, I will give it a honest and fair try.

 Looking back and learn from the past

There are a few phenomena, which we can already observe nowadays and will last for a longer period.

  • At first, we observe that everything, which is related to our environment, gets more and more attention. We now do realize that we can no longer exhaust harmful gases (greenhouse gases like CO2 and CH4) and particles (Black Carbon, PM10, PM2.5, …). Even governments are more and more ready to take unpleasant measures to reduce the exhaust of these harmful substances. In particular in Europe, the European Green Deal will have a major impact during the years to come. Some countries, regions and even continents are still lagging, but will have no other choice than to follow, since the whole economy will turn into that direction. Jobs will be created, while jobs, related to the old economy, will disappear.
  • We also see that youth has different ideas about property and owning things, be it an apartment or even a car. While for the baby boomers, ownership of a nice car is a major objective, for the generation x, y and z, this is no longer the case.

While for the baby boomers, ownership of a nice car is a major objective, for the generation x, y and z, this is no longer the case.

  • Also, we see that technology is taking a more and more important role in our day-to-day lives. We also see new types of technology popping up, like “the Internet of Things (IoT)”, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual and Augmented Reality (VR/AR), Blockchain, Cloud technology, etc…

 Looking forward

As the reduction of exhaust of harmful gases and particles will have a major impact on every single aspect of our lives (housing, economy, …) mobility as well will change completely within the near future. Let’s focus on that aspect of our live for a while.

While today, intermodal transport is still a very nice whish, it will be a reality in 2050, as well for mobility of people as for goods.

 Mobility for people in 2050

When people intend to move from A to B, it will no longer be obvious to step into the own car and drive from A to B.

When people intend to move from A to B, it will no longer be obvious to step into the own car and drive from A to B. Instead, there will be a Mobility Service Platform (MSP) – nowadays we should call it an App, but in 2050 it will have a completely different name and look – at which someone will address a request.

Let’s take an example:

  • Someone is preparing a holiday trip. On a given day, at 11:00 h, he will prepare his trip to the airport. He then will contact the MSP app and say, since in 2050 voice technology will be used all time and everywhere: “At 17:30h, I have to be at the Brussels Airport and I have 2 bags of roughly 15 kg each”. Potentially, the system will then ask a few more questions, in order to prepare his trip as good as possible. One can imagine that the MSP requests also: “What’s your destination?” or “Is it a holiday or business trip?”. As a consequence, the MSP can already investigate at which terminal and at which counter this person has to check-in. As a response on the main question, the MSP’s answer will be: “At 14:30h, there will be an ADEM car (Autonomous Driving Electric Mobility) in front of your house, to bring you to the airport”.
  • Suppose that he’s heading for a holiday trip to Brazil, the ADEM, which is equipped with 360° video enabled windows, already brings a glimpse of the city of Rio de Janeiro and the loudspeakers bring him the typical Brazilian sound. While arriving at the airport, he feels entirely prepared for his trip. It’s only the flight that separates him from his lovely destination.
  • In case he’s on his way to give an important business presentation for a large and utmost important audience, he can upfront upload his presentation to the ADEM system and, during his journey to the airport, rehearse his presentation in order to be as good prepared as possible. The 360° video enabled windows can create the atmosphere on that large audience, in order to give him a feeling, close to the reality he will live within a few hours and he will feel much more confident, once he gets on the plane.

At the arrival at the airport of departure, the ADEM on-board printer will already print his boarding pass.

Within 30 years from now, the vast majority of vehicles will be autonomous driving vehicles.

Within 30 years from now, the vast majority of vehicles will be autonomous driving vehicles. New wireless technologies, like 5G, 6G, …, xG and short-range wireless communication like vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V), vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) and many more will allow these vehicles to drive from A to B without any risk on a car accident. Once human beings will stop driving themselves and entirely trust autonomous driving vehicles, the number of car accidents will drastically drop and eventually completely disappear. This is a nice dream, but chances are real that it will already become reality in 2050.

Continental has some very clear ideas on how the future of mobility may look like: https://youtu.be/mk52AaxofM8

Intermodal mobility for people

And what about intermodal transport systems?

In the example here above, it is obvious that one will only use one single mode of mobility. But let’s take another passenger, who’s living in a small village in the neighborhood of Ghent and is heading for a congress in downtown Antwerp. A day ahead, while preparing her trip, she contacts her MSP app and says: “Hello, tomorrow I have to be at the Mobility Congress in Antwerp at 9:00 h, but want to arrive at 8:30 h already at the event venue.”

The MSP app might then return following message: “At 7:15h there will be an ADEM car in front of your door. That one will bring you to the Hyperloop station of Ghent, where you will arrive at 7:36h. The hyperloop itself will leave at 7:45h and arrive in Antwerp at 8:05h. There, ADEM car with id. 2043 will wait for you and bring you to the auditorium of the University, where the congress will take place. In the meantime, I already have introduced all these data into your personal calendar in your smart phone. Your alarm clock will go off at 6:15 h. Is that OK for you?”

 I deliberately make use here above of the hyperloop, but obviously there will still be trains going back and forth between Ghent and Antwerp in 2050. They will be quite different to the ones, we’re used to use nowadays, but nevertheless, they will still use the same tracks and switches, which we know and use today.

Some new technologies will come and replace outdated ones, while other technologies will continue to evolve and re-invent themselves to become fancier than today, while still based on that same base concept, that the inventor has created centuries ago.

Payment handling will also be integrated and secured, in such a way that no one has to take care about.

Did you notice that I never mentioned any payment so far? Payment handling will also be integrated and secured, in such a way that no one has to take care about. As all the data, needed to handle a payment in a secure way, are available inside the MSP Central System, the app will receive a request from the Central system to provide the end-user data like place of departure, place of destination, distance, mode of operation, … and that MSP Central System will then match this with payment schemes of different operators, that provide services within the intermodal chain.

 Intermodal mobility for goods

 And what about goods?

 Like with persons, goods can and will also be handled in an integrated way. Once the goods are stored at the producer plant into an intelligent box, the logistics operator can then get in touch with that same MSP app and order for a transport of that particular intelligent box from the production plant in e.g. Puurs (Belgium) towards the final destination in Aberdeen (Scotland). Here, obviously, the operator will have to provide some more details, like size of the box, temperature (e.g. in case of drugs), … unless all these data are already prepared by the operator and collected into a standardized electronic logistics file, which then can be uploaded at once into the MSP Central System.

All requests will come together within the MSP Central System, so that optimization of routing is possible. Hence, the system will only return an answer to the operator, once the optimization routine of the logistics flows has been activated. Then again, the answer will be that a large freight ADEM van will arrive at the production site to collect the sealed intelligent box and bring it at destination via different modes of mobility (ADEM, Train, Plane, Barge, Drone, …), where an authorized person, who’s entitled to unseal the intelligent box and collect the goods, that have been sent to him, will open the intelligent box and collect the goods. 

The goods are secured at all time, since the intelligent box is sealed and protected against theft, damage and pilferage.

The goods are secured at all time, since the intelligent box is sealed and protected against theft, damage and pilferage. Hence, we can speak about a real door-to-door secured logistics trade lanes.

We can speak about a real door-to-door secured logistics trade lanes.

Conclusions

Although 2050 is still far away, we already see some trends appearing which we expect to grow further on and become mature within 20 to 30 years from now. I would love to be able to take this document at hand in 2050 and maybe laugh, but also maybe being proud on how our society has evolved since then.

 

Jacques De Kegel, ir.

Ninove, 2020-12-07 (updated on 2021-01-29)

 

#futureofmobility #continental #automotive #innovation #sustainability #technology #mobility #fitfor55

Johan Van der Hauwaert

Creatieve Freelancer gepassioneerd door administratief ontzorgen in uw bedrijf

3y

Jacques, stemt tot nadenken. Wat als we te maken krijgen met een recurrente pandemie en frequent reizen een begrip uit het verleden wordt in 2050?

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Jacques, lees ook eens het standpunt Mobiliteit van de KVAB. Zie kvab.be.

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Tim Briers

🌱Founding beard @ Watt's Next, Belgian V2G Pioneer | EP Certified Photographer | Copywriter | Marketeer | Let's e!

3y
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