Democrats Don’t Understand Their Own Midterm Weakness
Recent voter-turnout history should make Republicans feel pretty good about those visions of blue waves.
They’ll probably vote.
Photographer: Scott Olson/Getty ImagesDemocrats do best in presidential years. They’ve won by popular count in six of the last seven races. But in recent midterms and special elections, their showings haven’t been nearly as strong. Visions of a “blue wave” are raising their hopes that this November will be different. For that to happen, though, the party and its supporters will need to overcome deep-rooted habits.
● In the 2010 and 2014 midterms, about two-thirds as many Republicans turned out to vote as for the presidential contests two years earlier. But only 53 percent of Democrats did. That margin sufficed to give Congress to the GOP, plus a raft of governors offices and state chambers. There is every reason to believe that Republicans will be out in force on Nov. 6. The challenge for Democrats is to close that 14 percent gap.