With Hostage Deal on Hold, Future of Israel’s Offensive on Hamas Unclear

Experts say that a cease-fire agreement may be extended beyond the proposed 10 days, potentially bringing an end to Israel’s operation in Gaza. Yet it remains far from clear that the deal will be implemented, in full or in part.

In the hours before a temporary cease-fire between Israel and Hamas could go into effect, the future of the war remains murky.

The Israeli military, which currently holds a significant presence of ground forces in the Gaza Strip, will continue to maintain its presence during the cease-fire, keeping Israeli troops in close proximity to their Hamas counterparts.

The cease-fire agreement is expected to last between four and 10 days and includes the release of dozens of Israeli hostages. It is unclear whether the deal will be upheld, but the proposed cease-fire will likely have an impact on the continuation of the war, regardless of whether it is fully implemented.

At the war’s onset, Israel declared two goals. One was to topple Hamas, strip the group of its military capabilities, and remove it as sovereign over the Gaza Strip. The other was to release the 240 hostages taken by Hamas during its surprise offensive on Oct. 7.

Most of the hostages are Israeli civilians, among them children and elderly people. Some are foreigners or Israelis with dual citizenship. Some are soldiers, a group that is seen by Hamas as bearing the highest price tag.

While Israeli officials maintain the two goals are complementary, achieving both requires a tricky balancing act. Negotiating with Hamas for a cease-fire in return for the hostages’ return seems hard to square with the goal of ousting Hamas, although Israel denies this.

Israel has changed its goal from toppling Hamas to dealing it a decisive blow

“The Israeli decision shows that the lives of the hostages are more meaningful than toppling Hamas,” retired Cmdr. Dr. Eyal Pinko, senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, told The Media Line. “This means Israel has changed its goal from toppling Hamas to dealing it a decisive blow.”

Pinko said that Hamas will likely remain in power after the war, despite Israel’s promise that the group will no longer be allowed to rule the Gaza Strip. With Hamas’ stated ultimate goal being the destruction of Israel, any end to the current fighting will be only temporary.

Final details are still being ironed out in the cease-fire deal, which was brokered by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, one of Hamas’ main sponsors. The deal is expected to be implemented gradually. Over the course of five days, Hamas will release 10 hostages daily. The hostages set to be released are children and their mothers. In return, Israel will release 150 Palestinian prisoners, mainly teenagers and women. Israel will also halt its military activity in the Gaza Strip, including halting drone surveillance for several hours a day.

The cease-fire agreement was initially set to begin on Thursday, but it was postponed just hours before the time it was meant to take effect. None of the parties to the negotiation have confirmed the reasons behind the delay, but some have speculated that the delay has to do with new demands from Hamas.

The deal is a delicate one, and its implementation or lack thereof could lead to several different scenarios.

If the deal is implemented, it could spell the end of Israel’s current military operation in the Gaza Strip.

“Hamas will want to extend the period of the hostage release for as long as possible,” Pinko said. “After the release of the civilian hostages, negotiations will begin on the release of the soldiers. During this time, there may be sporadic fighting. But the more extended the period of a cease-fire will be, this will eventually lead to the end of the war.”

Since the beginning of the Israeli retaliation, Israel’s military has encouraged the residents of northern and central Gaza to migrate to the southern part of the territory in order to allow the military to operate freely in the north. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 1.6 million Gazans, more than half of the population, have been displaced since the start of the conflict. The majority of displaced Gazans are concentrated in the south of Gaza. A lengthy pause in fighting could see residents gradually returning to their homes, or what remains of them.

“This will be unavoidable and in such a case, the army will be unable to operate effectively,” Pinko said. “The end result of such a scenario is that the army will be forced to withdraw from the Gaza Strip.”

Senior military officials and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insist the war will continue after the cease-fire, picking up right where it was left off.

Public opinion in Israel is largely in favor of the military operation and the goals that the government has set out to achieve. Stung by the surprise offensive, Israelis are eager to see Hamas removed from power and for their country to regain its bruised national pride.

“The crisis in the public is so large that no government will dare to give up,” said Col. (res.) Dr. Moshe Elad, a lecturer at Western Galilee College and a former senior military officer who served in the West Bank, Gaza, and Lebanon.

But public opinion is also pressuring the government to release the hostages at any price. Very few Israelis are speaking out against the deal, despite the risk it harbors for the future of Israel’s fight against Hamas. For some Israelis, the government’s failure to protect its citizens from the unprecedented Oct. 7 attack means that it has to pay any price in order to get its people back home.

Hamas is going to take advantage of the pause in the fighting to continue to offer prisoner exchanges at a higher price

“The dilemma is not whether to continue the fighting or not, but whether continuing in full force after the first deal will not risk the remaining hostages,” Elad told The Media Line. “Hamas is going to take advantage of the pause in the fighting to continue to offer prisoner exchanges at a higher price. This will also raise the bar among Israelis on how much they are willing to pay for further releases.”

In 2011, Israel released over 1,000 prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit, a soldier who was taken hostage in 2006. The deal scarred Israel and simultaneously left an impression on Israel’s enemies.

“Hamas understands this sensitivity and will use it to put Israel in a very difficult position,” Elad said.

Should Israel proceed with its offensive, the next goal is set to be the southern Gaza Strip, where much of Hamas’ military infrastructure is believed to be concentrated. A good deal of that infrastructure is assumed to be underground, making Israel’s mission all the more challenging. Hamas’ senior leadership, including leader Yahya Sinwar, is believed to be hiding there.

In recent days, the Israeli military has conducted several airstrikes against targets in the south of Gaza. Whether these are preparations for a ground offensive or an attempt to take advantage of the time that remains before the operation dies down remains to be seen.

Sinwar understands Israel is more interested in the hostages than the continuation of the fighting and he will take advantage of this to make political and military gains

“Hamas and Sinwar are hoping Israel will retract on its intention to operate in the south because it is a major threat to them,” Pinko said. “Sinwar understands Israel is more interested in the hostages than the continuation of the fighting and he will take advantage of this to make political and military gains.”

Sinwar is also looking to release a significant number of the 6,000 Palestinian prisoners that Israel holds.

Should the deal fall through, an unlikely but not unimaginable possibility, the Israeli military will likely continue its advance to southern Gaza. Such a battle is expected to be difficult and bloody for both sides.

“In any case, we are looking at a few more weeks of Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip,” Pinko said. “These will not be quiet weeks.”

The question of whether Israel will be successful in removing Hamas from power is still unanswered. While Hamas appears to have lost its grip on the northern Gaza strip, the group’s power is concentrated in the southern part of the strip, which remains largely untouched by Israel.

Hamas has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007 and it is difficult to imagine the territory without Hamas there.

Regardless of how the war ends, Israel needs to plan for the longer-term future. After the trauma of Oct. 7, when hundreds of Hamas terrorists stormed Israel’s high-tech, multibillion-dollar barrier, Israel will likely seek guarantees that such a scenario will not repeat itself. Tens of thousands of residents from the area around Gaza are still displaced within Israel while they wait for the government to find a solution.

“Israel will look to establish a buffer zone and will need to reserve the right to enter the Gaza Strip should it deem necessary,” Elad said. Hamas will challenge a permanent Israeli presence in the strip, as will any other Palestinian entity.