MAKING SENSE OF UNCERTAINTY
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Uncertainties can make it hard to plan ahead. But recognising them can help to reveal new questions and choices. What kinds of uncertainty are there, why do they matter for sustainability, and what ideas, approaches and methods can help us to respond to them?
Uncertainty is the STEPS Centre’s annual theme for 2019.
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July 2019: The Politics of Uncertainty
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Our symposium The Politics of Uncertainty: Practical challenges for transformative action begins on 3 July.
Thinking across diverse domains – from finance, to climate, to migration, to disease, to innovation, to infrastructure, to security – this symposium will explore the diverse ways incertitude is understood and responded to (or not).
Participation in this event is currently by invitation only, because of constraints on space and resources. Materials from the symposium will be available online after the event.
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What is uncertainty and why does it matter?
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In this STEPS/PASTRES working paper, Ian Scoones examines five different ways of thinking about uncertainty, from societal, political, cultural, practice and individual perspectives.
He outlines how these relate to the domains of finance and banking; critical infrastructures; disease outbreaks and climate change; and natural hazards and disasters. Uncertainty has important implications for thinking about progress, expertise, processes of change, social difference, and governance.
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STEPS blog: Exploring uncertainty
Decision-makers often treat all kinds of uncertainties as if they are risks, with probabilities that can be calculated. But sustainability involves other kinds of uncertainties – whether they’re due to incomplete evidence, complexity, divergent values, scientific disagreement, gaps in knowledge or the simple possibility of surprise.
Our blog series for 2019 explores why this matters and what it means in practice.
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7 May: Ilene Grabel – When Things Don’t Fall Apart
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As part of our series on Uncertainty, Ilene Grabel (Professor of International Finance, University of Denver) will be discussing her book When Things Don’t Fall Apart. The lecture takes place on 7 May at the Institute of Development Studies, Brighton, UK, and is open to all.
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Embracing uncertainty: what are the implications for sustainability and development?
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A blog post by STEPS co-director Ian Scoones introducing our Uncertainty theme in 2019, and revealing some key questions for visions, science, policy, justice, ecologies, governance and methods.
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Uncertainty, politics and science
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A series of three blog posts by STEPS co-director Andy Stirling on how uncertainty is framed and closed down, how this framing is shaped by policy makers and those who advise them, and the implications for science and innovation.
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Ian Scoones wins Ester Boserup prize
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Ian Scoones has been awarded the prestigious Ester Boserup Prize for Research on Development, and will give the prize lecture on 14 June in Copenhagen.
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Research, comment & events
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New project: Seeing Conflict at the Margins
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Investors are committing unprecedented funds to exploit Africa's resources: oil and gas, minerals, geothermal, wind, landscapes and wildlife. Many of these are located at the rural margins. A new project explores the views and responses of people in these places.
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Why politics matters for transformations to sustainability
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In a lecture and podcast for the Institute of Development Studies, Ian Scoones reflects on how the global goals are being implemented, and the potential for a more radical vision of transformative change, putting power and politics centre-stage, and learning from livelihoods approaches.
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14 May 2019: STEPS Annual Lecture - What would Elinor do (about climate change)?
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Elinor Ostrom was the first and so far only woman to win a Nobel Prize in economics with her work that challenged the ideas of the ‘tragedy of the commons’. In this lecture on 14 May at the University of Sussex, Derek Wall will outline, develop and critique her approach in the context of climate change.
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STEPS to organise biennial POLLEN conference
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Contested Natures: Power, Possibility, Prefiguration will be held in Brighton in June 2020, organised by the STEPS Centre, and co-hosted by Radical Futures at the University of Brighton, and the Institute of Development Studies, with support from the BIOSEC project. A call for papers will be issued in May.
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Film: Poverty Traps
This short film, commissioned by the STEPS North America hub, explores how people in so-called ‘poverty traps’ in rural Appalachia view their own situation.
Watch the film
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The Water-Food-Energy Nexus
Jeremy Allouche, Carl Middleton and Dipak Gyawali
The ‘nexus’ of relations between water, food and energy is often seen as a technical matter, addressing issues of risk, security or economics. In a new book in the Pathways to Sustainability series, Jeremy Allouche, Carl Middleton and Dipak Gyawali argue for a political approach to the Nexus.
About the book
VIDEO: What is the nexus?
BLOG: Rediscovering the Water-Food-Energy Nexus
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The Circular Economy and the Global South
Edited by Patrick Schröder, Manisha Anantharaman, Kartika Anggraeni, Timothy J. Foxon
How is the ‘circular economy’ relevant in the context of developing countries? This book in the Pathways to Sustainability series critically examines solutions and practices in the Global South, including case studies in Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, South Africa, and Thailand.
About the book
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Uncertainty in environmental governance
Andy Stirling
Irrigating Zimbabwe After Land Reform: The Potential of Farmer-Led Systems
Ian Scoones, Felix Murimbarimba and Jacob Mahenehene, Water Alternatives
Engineering and Sustainability: Control and Care in Unfoldings of Modernity
Andy Stirling (SPRU Working Paper 2019-06)
Can Pay-As-You-Go, Digitally Enabled Business Models Support Sustainability Transformations in Developing Countries?
David Ockwell, Joanes Atela, Kennedy Mbeva, Victoria Chengo, Rob Byrne, Rachael Durrant, Victoria Kasprowicz and Adrian Ely, Sustainability
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TAPESTRY focuses on three 'patches of transformation' in India and Bangladesh – vulnerable coastal areas of Mumbai, the Sundarbans and Kutch, facing multiple uncertainties – where new alliances and practices are reimagining sustainable development and inspiring transformation.
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The System Change Hive explores links between art and research on sustainability, through a series of discussions between STEPS members, invited guests and a selected group of emerging artists, supported by experienced mentors and communications experts.
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PASTRES (Pastoralism, Uncertainty and Resilience: Global Lessons from the Margins) is a research project which aims to learn from the ways that pastoralists respond to uncertainty, applying such ‘lessons from the margins’ to global challenges.
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The ESRC STEPS Centre (Social, Technological and Environmental Pathways to Sustainability) is a research centre hosted by the Institute of Development Studies (IDS) and the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at the University of Sussex, UK. We are supported by a grant from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.
The STEPS Centre is part of the Pathways to Sustainability Global Consortium, which includes hubs in Africa, China, Europe, Latin America, North America and South Asia.
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