With just over six weeks until the general election, Democratic candidates hold leads in both the Pennsylvania gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races, according to a new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll.
Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro leads Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano by 11 points, 53% to 42%, among voters who are at least leaning toward one candidate.
The race for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pat Toomey is closer. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, has a 5-point lead on Republican Mehmet Oz, 49% to 44%. That is within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.
Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion interviewed 420 likely voters in the state Sept. 13-16.
Chris Borick, a Muhlenberg College political science professor, said the results line up with other polls that show Shapiro and Fetterman in the lead. However, neither should be comfortable in their current positions, he said.
“With our latest results, along with the other results out there, you get a sense that in general Democrats right now hold the advantage in two of these races,” Borick said. “But both races are certainly quite competitive when you look at the margins. You know, even Shapiro’s lead is fairly strong at this point, but he’s polling in the low 50s. That is where you ultimately hope to be, but it certainly is not overwhelmingly comfortable.”
In the generic ballot for the U.S. House of Representatives, 46% said they intended to support a Republican, and 45% would support a Democrat. House races are being watched nationally because of the Democrats’ narrow majority. Pennsylvania will elect 17 representatives after losing one seat following the 2020 census.
“These are competitive races in a cycle that I think is still pretty strong for Republicans,” Borick said. “You could see that in our generic poll. I think that’s fascinating that while Republicans lead by 1 point in a generic congressional race, their statewide candidates lag behind in that. That tells you that while it certainly is still incredibly important, the two Republican candidates in the statewide races have some work to do.”
The governor’s race
Among likely voters, Mastriano has a favorability rating of 31%, with 48% having an unfavorable view. Those without an opinion were at 16%.
Mastriano, a retired Army colonel who has represented a Franklin County Senate district since 2019, has been a favorite of conservatives and loyalists to former President Donald Trump after he led opposition to Gov. Tom Wolf’s COVID mitigation policies. Mastriano also helped organize efforts in Pennsylvania to submit alternate presidential electors beholden to Trump and was seen outside the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Mastriano has run a base campaign with small gatherings with core supporters. He’s mostly stayed away from mainstream media organizations, only taking questions from friendly news sources.
“I think that’s where the results largely demonstrate the challenge for Mastriano is to rise beyond his base,” Borick said. “His primary victory [in May] was in a fragmented field and was one that was built upon his strong following.
“But to get to that 50 number, you have to expand,” Borick said. “You have to find more. If you’re going to win a statewide race in Pennsylvania, you’re going to probably have to go beyond your base even if you get high turnout from the base, there’s still going to be some voters you’re going to have to sell that you’re an acceptable choice. I don’t think at this point there’s evidence that he’s done that.”
Shapiro has a 49% favorability rating among likely voters, with 31% having an unfavorable view, and 16% having no opinion.
Shapiro, who previously served as a state representative and a Montgomery County commissioner, has been a two-term attorney general and has defended in court Wolf’s COVID policies along with the state’s 2020 election results. He also led a sweeping grand jury investigation into sexual abuse by Catholic priests and laypeople in six Pennsylvania dioceses.
He’s picked up the support of some Republican officials and former officials, including former U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent and former Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff.
“Shapiro is seeking the median voter in the state,” Borick said. “The voter we might place in the middle on using issues like his work as attorney general and also his stance on abortion. You can see in the poll his positions align at the top of issues in this cycle and he crafts an image of his opponent as extreme. Right now, the polling evidence says it’s been fairly successful.”
The poll found that among those answering “not sure” in the race, 27% were leaning toward Shapiro, 23% leaned toward Mastriano and 50% were undecided.
While both candidates held big leads with voters within their respective parties, Shapiro has the support of 17% of Republicans, while Mastriano has the support of 5% of Democrats. Independents broke evenly between the two at 45% each.
Shapiro enjoys a lead with voters with college degrees, 64%-32%, while those with no college degree support Mastriano by a narrower margin, 52%-44%.
Female voters broke for Shapiro by 14 points, 55%-41%, while male voters supported him by 8 points, 51%-43%.
U.S. Senate race
Oz, a former cardiothoracic surgeon and TV personality, has been working to meet with Pennsylvania voters after establishing residency in the Keystone State from New Jersey about two years ago. Fetterman’s campaign has made Oz’s residency a top issue.
Oz has a 29% favorable rating with a 53% unfavorable rating; 14% didn’t have an opinion.
“We didn’t ask a lot of specific questions about his potential weaknesses as being seen as from out of state, but I think you could look at his favorability numbers,” Borick said. “You can see those both in the primary and the general election have taken a toll. He’s underwater, pretty significantly, favorable to unfavorable.”
Fetterman, a former AmeriCorps volunteer and mayor of Braddock, Allegheny County, was elected lieutenant governor for Wolf’s second term in 2018. He touts his work at revitalizing the steel town near Pittsburgh, which was considered one of the poorest in the state. Oz has been hitting Fetterman on his record on crime, including his time on the state parole board.
Fetterman has 44% favorability with voters, with 41% expressing disapproval and 12% having no opinion.
“If you look at Fetterman’s numbers, he’s in a better position relative to things like favorability, but he’s got a pretty substantial portion of the electorate that view him unfavorably,” Borick said. “You’ve seen the tack that the Oz campaign has taken recently to really push that to make Fetterman seem like he’s an extremist, that he’s too left leaning, too progressive.”
Borick pointed out the one demographic where Oz has a lead, and a substantial one at that, is with seniors 65 and older, who favor him 54%-40%.
“I would point to that among older voters, that’s where Fetterman seems to have some bigger challenges,” he said.
Of those who answered “not sure” for the poll, 33% are leaning toward Oz, 21% toward Fetterman and 46% still aren’t sure.
Both have heavy support from party loyalists with Fetterman holding an 89%-6% advantage among Democrats and Oz having a 81%-12% advantage with Republicans. Independent voters support Fetterman by a 10-point margin, 49%-39%, with 5% not sure and 8% supporting a different candidate.
Like the governor’s race, there’s a split among those with and without college degrees. Those with a degree support Fetterman, 59%-35%, those without prefer Oz 52%-40%.
Fetterman has both the support of female voters, 51%-43%, and male voters 47%-45%.
On the issues
On the issue of abortion rights, which moved to the forefront after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, 61% of Pennsylvanians think abortion should remain legal. Broken down, 29% think abortion should be legal in all cases, and 32% believe it should be in most cases.
As for specific issues deciding how they will vote, 22% said economy, 20% said abortion and 12% said inflation. All other issues were in single digits, including immigration (4%), climate change (3%), crime (3%), health care (3%) and guns (3%).
“Those issues are hard for Democrats to rise above in this cycle, but increased prominence and salience of abortion has helped offset those,” Borick said. “Otherwise, really strong tailwinds for Republicans.”
Other poll takeaways
President Joe Biden’s approval rating was at 43%, with 52% disapproval and 5% with no opinion.
Gov. Tom Wolf had a 45% approval rating, with a 45% disapproval with 10% having no opinion.
Among respondents to the latest Muhlenberg poll, 47% said they voted for Biden in 2020, 46% said they voted for Donald Trump, 3% for a different candidate and 3% said they did not vote.
When asked how likely it is they will vote in November, 84% said “definitely” while 16% were “very likely.”
Morning Call reporter Evan Jones can be reached at ejones@mcall.com.
