Suddenly, Joe Manchin’s plan is on the ropes

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Republicans have sent a message to Democratic Senator Joe Manchin: We aren’t going to help you out on your side deal with Chuck Schumer.

As part of their negotiations on the Inflation Reduction Act, the Senate Majority Leader and his most mercurial party colleague agreed that the Senate would vote to reform streamline the permitting process for new energy projects. That includes the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which would move natural gas through Virginia and Manchin’s West Virginia.

The “permitting reform” deal was always a risk for Manchin, requiring both that he trust Schumer to whip the entire Democratic caucus behind it and that at least ten other Republicans would join them – ideally more.

Manchin said Democratic leadership would include it in a continuing resolution that Congress must pass by the end of this month to keep the government open. But last week, Bernie Sanders, still smarting from the fact that the anti-inflation package was significantly pared down and all of his amendments dashed on the rocks, announced he would oppose a continuing resolution to keep the government open if it included permitting reform.

If Sanders is the only member of the Democratic caucus to peel off, he can be offset with a Republican vote. But it’s clear that many Republicans are not that keen to help Manchin out.

Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi told your reporter when asked about whether he’d support the provision that his support depended “on what the substance of the reform is”.

“If it’s something to help Senator Manchin save face,” he said, then it would be problematic.

Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota was pessimistic about the bill’s chances, flatly stating he is “not sure there’s the votes to do it” – though he conceded he had not seen everything yet.

Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa, meanwhile, was uneasy about the substance. “With Joe’s, I think it helps West Virginia a lot,” she said. “But there are a lot of loopholes where I would rather we don’t have anything attached to the CR.”

And Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama said he would rather it be done in a standalone bill. “I told Joe when he made that deal, ‘Is this going to work?’” he said. “He thought he had a deal but, I don’t know. We’ll look at the text.”

And Bernie Sanders aside, it also looks like Manchin’s fellow Democrats might not be too keen on helping him out. “I think it’s got all the hallmarks of something that should be done in a standalone bill,” Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia said.

Even Senator Jon Tester of Montana, who said he supports permitting reform, did not give full-throated support. “I haven’t seen the final language,” he said, “so I reserve the right not to, but I can see myself supporting it.”