Satellite images show multiple warplanes were destroyed in a series of explosions at a military base in Crimea which have been branded a “morale disaster” for Moscow.
Ukraine said that nine Russian aircraft had been destroyed on Tuesday in multiple blasts which killed one person and injured another 14. It fell short, however, of claiming responsibility for the explosions at the Saky air base, while it mocked Russia’s suggestion that a smoker may have caused the ammunition to catch fire and blow up.
Russia denied any aircraft were damaged in the explosions— or that any attack took place. But satellite photos released by Planet Labs PBC and taken mid-afternoon on Wednesday clearly showed at least seven fighter planes at the base had been blown up and probable damage to others.
A Ukrainian presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, cryptically said that the blasts were either caused by Ukrainian-made long-range weapons or the work of Ukrainian guerrillas operating in Crimea.
If Ukraine were indeed behind the attack, it would represent a significant escalation in conflict as it would be the first time that Kyiv has struck a target on the Russian-annexed Black Sea peninsula.
According to Australian retired army general Mick Ryan, Russia is now in a “real quandary” as Ukraine “clearly can now hold large parts of Crimea at risk.
“And not just airbases. The Black Sea Fleet, it’s fuel, munitions, repair yards and infrastructure are now vulnerable,” he said in a Twitter thread.
Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014 but which is still internationally recognised as being part of Ukraine, holds huge strategic and symbolic significance for both sides. The Kremlin’s demand that Ukraine recognise Crimea as part of Russia has been one of its key conditions for ending the fighting, while Ukraine has vowed to drive the Russians from the peninsula and all other occupied territories.
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Mr Ryan said the outcome of the explosions at the strategic base, which had been used by Moscow to target southern parts of Ukraine, “is an information victory for Ukraine” and a “morale boost” while it also “draws attention back to the conflict and tells western nations that Ukraine is still worth supporting, regardless of energy costs in Europe”.
For Russia, it is a “morale disaster” he claimed, as Russian troops appear to be “incompetent” when it comes to defending bases which are far from the “front lines”.
According to Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov, Kyiv has “kept mum” about the blasts at the base but “unofficially the military acknowledges that it was a Ukrainian strike”.
The base is about 125 miles from the closest Ukrainian position. Mr Zhdanov suggested that Ukrainian forces could have struck it with Ukrainian or Western-supplied missiles that have the necessary range.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said it couldn’t independently determine what had caused the explosions but noted that simultaneous blasts in two places at the base probably rule out an accidental fire, though not sabotage or a missile attack.
It added: “The Kremlin has little incentive to accuse Ukraine of conducting strikes that caused the damage since such strikes would demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defence systems.”
Additional reporting by agencies