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Travel update: Turkey, Maldives and South Africa could move from red list to amber at next review

Travel analysts believe Covid data shows that the countries should be moved to less restrictive measures at this week's traffic light announcement

Turkey, the Maldives and South Africa are among the destinations predicted to be taken off the red list for travel this week based on latest Covid data.

Travel analysts believe the countries – alongside Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Dominican Republic – should be opened up to holidaymakers by the UK government.

There are currently more than 60 destinations from which arrivals must pay £2,285 for 11 nights in a designated quarantine hotel.

While many have lower rates of Covid infection than the UK, some have also claimed countries are unduly languishing on the red list over the potential importation of variants of concern.

How do Turkey, the Maldives and South Africa compare to the UK?

UK

Current rate of infection: 477.29 per million

Percentage of population that is fully-vaccinated: 65 per cent

Turkey

Current rate of infection: 282.23 per million

Percentage of population that is fully-vaccinated: 48 per cent

Maldives

Current rate of infection: 211.81 per million

Percentage of population that is fully-vaccinated: 58 per cent

South Africa:

Current rate of infection: 82.56 per million

Percentage of population that is fully-vaccinated: 12 per cent

Source: Our World in Data as of 14 September

Robert Boyle, a former British Airways chief strategist, told the Independent: “I don’t believe there are really any countries with high instances of worrying variants.

“Excluding a handful of sequences where the variant was not identified, 99.7 per cent of the worldwide sequences in the week ending 4 September were Delta variant.

“Of the 45,809 sequences uploaded that week, there were zero instances of Beta. The previous week, there were three.”

The Beta variant, first identified in South Africa, has caused concern among experts as there is some evidence vaccines are less effective against it.

The next travel review is expected either on Wednesday or Thursday this week from Transport Secretary Grant Shapps.

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The traffic light system is based on the rate of infection, the percentage of the population that has been vaccinated, prevalence of variants of concern and access to reliable scientific data and genomic sequencing in each country.

Though many touted Turkey as one of the destinations to be removed from the toughest measures at the last travel review, including the Turkish embassy, its fate still hangs in the balance.

Travel expert, Tim White – who previously told i the UK Government’s “widespread disbelief” of its Covid data was the reason behind it remaining on red – noted cases were soaring in the country.

Other countries have also lobbied for less restrictive rules for UK travellers alongside politicians.

Ben Bradshaw MP, Lord Oates and Baroness Chalker said in a joint statement on behalf of the South African tourism instruct: “The evidence clearly points to South Africa being removed from the red list.

“If the UK government wants to retain the integrity of its traffic light system, it must reward countries which empirically demonstrate they are safe by granting them amber status.”

Since the last traffic-light announcement on 26 August, cases in Turkey have risen from a seven-day daily average of 19,361 to 22,091 as of 9 September.

As well as opening up more countries for UK travellers, it is expected that the next travel update will be the final one in its current form.

From the start of October, it is predicted that amber and green lists will merge into a single list, although arrivals from red-listed destinations will still be required to quarantine in hotels.

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