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Early adulthood psychiatric diagnoses and the subsequent risk of life-time incarceration: a cohort study

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 August 2019

Sophie D. Walsh Open the ORCID record for Sophie D. Walsh [Opens in a new window] ,
Bruce P. Dohrenwend ,
Itzhak Levav ,
Mark Weiser  and
Gilad Gal
Sophie D. Walsh*
Affiliation:
Department of Criminology, Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan5290002, Israel
Bruce P. Dohrenwend
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University and New York State Psychiatric Institute, New York, New York, USA Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
Itzhak Levav
Affiliation:
Department of Community Mental Health, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel
Mark Weiser
Affiliation:
Departments of Psychiatry, The Sackler School of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv and the Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel
Gilad Gal
Affiliation:
School of Behavioral Sciences, Tel Aviv-Yaffo Academic College, Tel Aviv, Israel
*
Author for correspondence: Sophie D. Walsh, E-mail: walshs@biu.ac.il
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Abstract

Background

The association between incarceration and psychiatric disorders has been noted. Yet, existing studies are cross-sectional or examine the risk of recidivism, which has limited the predictive validity of psychiatric disorders as a risk factor for incarceration. To overcome this limitation, this study used a prospective cohort to examine whether psychiatric diagnoses in early adulthood predicted incarceration throughout a 30-year follow-up. It tested the association between psychiatric diagnoses with future incarcerations, their number and durations, controlling for education and ethnic status.

Methods

This study merged data from three sources in Israel: a prospective 10-year birth cohort study of young adults aged 25–34, conducted in the 1980s (N = 4914) that included a psychiatric interview; data from the Prison Service, including the cause, number and duration of incarcerations; and from the Vital Statistics Registry on death records.

Results

Multivariate analysis showed that substance-use disorders, antisocial personality and lower levels of education predicted future incarceration, their number and maximum duration. The remainder diagnoses were not significantly associated with future incarceration.

Conclusions

Results limited the prediction of future incarcerations to persons diagnosed with substance use and antisocial personality, and do not support an independent predictive association between additional psychiatric diagnoses and future incarceration.

Keywords

IncarcerationIsraelprospective cohort studypsychiatric diagnoses
Type
Original Articles
Information
Psychological Medicine , Volume 50 , Issue 11 , August 2020 , pp. 1906 - 1913
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Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019

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